IDF says Iran could have nuclear bomb within two years

Soleimani's assassination could have calming effect on Mideast, says Intelligence report; West Bank could become new threat following Palestinian elections, likelihood of war low
Yoav Zitun|
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An IDF report published on Tuesday assesses that Iran will achieve military nuclear capabilities within 2 years.
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  • The report, released by the IDF's Military Intelligence Directorate (MID), suggests that Iran continues to advance its efforts and nuclear capabilities, estimating that it will have enough material to construct a nuclear payload within a year and a missile to transport the warhead within two.
    3 View gallery
    המנהיג העליון של איראן עלי חמינאי נואם ב טהרן
    המנהיג העליון של איראן עלי חמינאי נואם ב טהרן
    Iran Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
    (Photo: AFP)
    The publication of the yearly assessment was postponed by a week following the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani by a U.S. drone, which the report cited as a "restraining event" for the region's future.
    Soleimani's death also poses an opportunity to attack dozens of Iranian military sites in Syria and damage its consolidation of forces in the area, a notion affirmed by several senior Israeli security officials.
    Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic's regime in Tehran is busy with domestic protests and heavy U.S. pressure against its nuclear program.
    The report also said that despite the U.S. policy of withdrawal from the Middle East initiated by the Obama administration, some 18,000 American troops are expected to soon join the 85,000-strong U.S. forces in the region.
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    קאסם סולימאני חסן נסראללה
    קאסם סולימאני חסן נסראללה
    Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah (L) and Qassem Soleimani
    MID also looked into the effects of social media, the Fake News phenomenon and the technological revolution online, leading among other things, to acquire tools of cyber warfare on the Dark Net.
    The report also pointed at two warning signs regarding threats on Israel's northern and southern frontiers.
    The first is Hezbollah in the north, which keeps the balance of deterrence against Israel, and will not hesitate to attack again – even if the result is a major escalation in the region – if Israel continues to target its militants in Syria.
    The second is deterrence against a possible flare-up in the West Bank.
    3 View gallery
    העצרת המרכזית של חמאס לרגל יום השנה ה-32 ליסוד הארגון
    העצרת המרכזית של חמאס לרגל יום השנה ה-32 ליסוד הארגון
    Hamas activists in the Gaza Strip
    (Photo: Reuters)
    This considering Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas's successors increasing in strength and the upcoming Palestinian elections, which might bring Hamas into rule in the West Bank.
    Despite these warnings, the general assessment by MID is that the likelihood of war in 2020 is rather low.
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    5.
    Israel and the USA have been saying that for the last DECADE
    So tell you what: let the Mullahs make their bombs. Let them test them to their hearts content on their own people. The winds blow eastward, Israel will be safe. A missile has to be launched in Iran and fly over Iraq and Jordan to get to Israel. plenty of time to send up missiles to destroy it. And while Iran's missile was flying towards Israel, the IDF would be sending every F-35, every F-16, and every F-15, loaded to the gills with flaming instant death to repay the favor. The regime would be over. The Republican Guard would cease to exist. The Iranians would take back their country. That's why it doesn't matter if they have the bomb. If they use it, the Mullahs will fall. They may be Islamopathically insane, but they're not stupid. The Mullahs once said, "If we can destroy Israel, a million Iranian deaths would be worth it." Do you think those million Iranians living in and around Tehran think the same way? I don't.
    David| 01.15.20
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    4.
    Do it before it's too late!
    There are not multiple solutions. IDF knows that Iran will have the atomic bomb by the end of 2020. The Israeli government has ONLY one solution: BOMB Iran's atomic facilities where uranium is being enriched, sooner rather than latter. DO IT before it is too late: Israel has much to loose if allows Iran to develop it: the very existence of the state of Israel.
    Evita| 01.15.20
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    3.
    Israel Has Been Saying Iran Will Have Within 2 Years .....
    For The Last 20 Years. And trying to get the USA to make war on Iran for just as long. Go fight your own wars. I hope the Iranians get the S-400 systems. I would love to see how your vaunted air force would fare against a modern, armed country. And that's the reason you haven't attacked Iran already. You are a country of cowards.
    World Citizen| 01.15.20
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