Several reasons may explain the IDF’s failure Saturday overnight to intercept the ballistic missile launched by the Houthis, which struck a playground and caused extensive damage in the area. This incident follows the "partial interception" of another missile that hit a school in Ramat Ef’al and the drone that infiltrated Israeli airspace and struck a building in Yavne.
These incidents might expose a critical vulnerability in the IDF’s air defense system protecting Israel’s civilian and military home front. The military’s Iron Beam laser interception system is expected to address the challenges posed by such launches, but until operational, Israel must gather intelligence on the missiles’ launch and production sites and target them. The Houthis, operating under their patron Iran, reportedly only own several dozens of them.
Footage of Houthi missile strike
(Video: Magen David Adom, Fire and Rescue Authority)
Two main reasons might explain Saturday’s interception failure. The first is that the missile was launched in a "flat" ballistic trajectory, possibly from an unexpected direction. As a result, Israeli or U.S. detection systems in Saudi Arabia may not have identified it in time, leading to its late discovery and insufficient time for interceptors to operate.
The second and more likely reason is that the Iranians have developed maneuvering warheads. These warheads separate from the missile during the final third of their trajectory and execute programmed maneuvers — changing direction and course — before striking their target.
The warhead of any ballistic missile is hypersonic. After re-entering the atmosphere, it moves using small rocket engines installed in the warhead or its fins. Such maneuvering is challenging for air defense systems, especially when the warhead travels at Mach 5 (five times the speed of sound).
This explains why the warhead of the missile launched early Thursday morning struck the building in Ramat Ef’al.
It’s known that Iran possesses missiles with maneuvering warheads, such as the Khaibar-Shekan and Emad 4. According to foreign reports, several of these missiles struck Israeli air bases at Tel Nof and Nevatim in Iran's latest attack.
It seems that Iran, in collaboration with the Houthis, has developed a method to launch these missiles in low ballistic trajectories, complicating their interception.
The pressing question now is why none of the other of Israel’s air defense layers managed to intercept the warhead. The likely explanation is the late detection and the flat trajectory, which prevented the operation of all available defense apparatuses.
The threat posed by maneuvering warheads on Iran's heavy, long-range missiles would become existential for Israel should Iran succeed in developing nuclear warheads for these missiles.
A single nuclear-maneuvering warhead breaching Israel's air defense system could cause catastrophic destruction and loss of life.
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The Houthis claimed responsibility for the missile strike in central Israel on Saturday, asserting they targeted a "military target in Jaffa using the 'Palestine 2' hypersonic ballistic missile."
Senior Houthi official Mohammed Ali al-Houthi talked following the strike, saying, "The Arrow system doesn’t provide Israel with safety against 'Palestine 2' missiles. Our capabilities continue to develop and the U.S., Europe and Israel’s defense systems failures continue.”