War in targeted moves. This is the Israel Defense Forces' strategy on the Lebanese border in the last few days and going forward, after the directive it received from the political echelon to return the residents of the north to their homes as part of the objectives of the current war. The IDF attacks powerfully in places where it has not attacked before and at different ranges, increases targeted countermeasures and special attacks, and re-examines the intelligence picture at each level and conducts renewed situation assessments to achieve its objectives.
Meanwhile, preparations for the continuation of the fighting continue. The cabinet will meet Monday at 7 p.m. at the defense headquarters at the Kirya base in Tel Aviv.
Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu
(Roi Avraham, GPO)
Overnight between Sunday and Monday, alerts about the intrusion of hostile drones were activated in and around Beit Shean for the first time since October 11, but it turned out that a false alarm had been activated since the drones never made it that far. According to Arab reports, a "swarm of drones from Iraq" was sent to Israel, and the "Islamic resistance in Iraq" claimed responsibility for "a drone attack in the Jordan Valley." According to the IDF spokesman, an unmanned aircraft that was launched from Iraq and crossed into the country from Syria was detected, and interceptors were launched against it. The incident ended without casualties.
After many months on defense, the IDF recently went on the attack against Hezbollah, with an emphasis on eroding the organization's capabilities and damaging its terrorist infrastructure. Israel is interested in further expanding the offensive operation in Lebanon, on its own initiative and regardless of the operation of the Shiite terrorist organization, which decided Sunday night to expand the circle of fire to hundreds of thousands more residents of the State of Israel.
Jerusalem understands that the actions of the last few days could lead to a real escalation on the northern border, but they understand that this is the only way to bring Hezbollah to a crossroads, where it must decide whether to continue with attacks or come to a settlement with Israel. As IDF Chief of Staff Major General Harzi Halevi said Sunday night in Tel Nof: "Hezbollah will receive a blow and another blow until it understands." In Israel they believe it is possible that the expansion of the offensive operation will cause Hezbollah to stop because it has no desire for an all-out war.
The significant damage to the Radwan force, which was planning to invade the Galilee as Hamas did on October 7 in the south, as well as the assassination of Ibrahim Aquil, are part of the effort to deprive Hezbollah of the ability to act against Israel in the near term. In addition, the IDF is investing in locating and destroying short- and medium-range rocket launchers in order to reduce the direct threats to the northern communities.
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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Joe Biden and Hezbollah header Hanan Nasrallah
(Photos: Rabih Daher/ AFP / Shutterstock / AP / Evan Vucci / Yariv Katz)
The fighting with ever-increasing intensity manifests itself in the intensive launching of rockets and missiles from Lebanese territory toward Israel, alongside the increase in IDF-initiated attacks with the aim of presenting Hezbollah with a clear dilemma: to be drawn into an all-out war or to strive for a political settlement. The IDF is operating in steps, a controlled escalation with the goal of being able to make Hezbollah reconsider its continued actions. The IDF is working to eliminate as many of the terror group's capabilities as possible, with the understanding that such an operational opportunity, if it returns, will only be in a few years.
Security officials explain that all the actions of the IDF are approved two steps ahead by the cabinet, and also explain that, at this stage, there is a desire to reach a reality with which the political parties can arrive at an agreement that will ensure the security of the residents of the north. If Hezbollah continues to insist on its positions on the one hand, and will not be dragged into war on the other hand, there is a chance that the aggressive struggles will last for days or even weeks.
At the same time as the threats of escalation from Israel, Hezbollah also threatened a war of attrition, as Hassan Nasrallah's deputy, Naim Qassem, made clear Sunday when he emphasized that Hezbollah is ready to continue the fight for a long time if required. Starting from the night between Saturday and Sunday, Hezbollah launched 150 rockets, drones and cruise missiles into Israeli territory. The vast majority of them were intercepted. There are those in Israel who wish to avoid an all-out war and end the conflict with a limited operation, but it is clear that, as long as Hezbollah continues its attacks, the situation could last for days or even weeks more .
Because of this, Northern Command Major General Ori Gordin met with representatives of residents of the North, and told them: "We have significantly harmed Hezbollah and we will continue and deepen the harm. We are at a point of change. Along with the defense mission, we are highly prepared for the additional attack plans on Hezbollah. I appreciate the way you are leading your communities in these complex days. We will continue to work together with you, in connection and full cooperation."
In closed conversations, senior military officials say that "the relationship with the residents and heads of authorities is critical these days. The public needs to be prepared and informed of what is expected of them. These are going to be very intense days." In the current reality, where the IDF is proactively escalating the attacks in Lebanon, it is difficult to know where things will develop.
Meanwhile, the Prime Minister's Office is holding consultations on whether to cancel Netanyahu's trip to New York this week for the United Nations General Assembly or to shorten it by a day, so that he will arrive on Thursday morning, speak on Friday, and return immediately at the end of Shabbat. Netanyahu's office is examining the possibility of sending another minister in his place, possibly government ministers Ron Dermer or Israel Katz. There is also the possibility of not sending an Israeli representative, and then the person who will speak on behalf of Israel next Monday will be the ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon.
The American warning
Against the backdrop of the military moves, the opinion of the United States also affects the overall picture. Washington thinks that a diplomatic settlement can still be reached in the north, despite the escalation. The Americans support Israel's actions to erode Hezbollah's capabilities and are not sorry about the assassination of Ibrahim Aquil, who was also wanted in the United States, but they have asked Israel to act carefully so as not to exacerbate the escalation beyond what is necessary.
The White House is warning against the possibility of an all-out war, which could lead to the involvement of Iran and the creation of an extensive regional conflict, a scenario that the Americans prefer to avoid in the run-up to the upcoming presidential elections.
U.S. President Joe Biden was asked Sunday night about the tensions in the Middle East and said that "we are going to do everything to prevent a large-scale war from breaking out."
Hezbollah's arsenal of tools
Hezbollah, being part of the Shiite-Iranian axis, receives ammunition from Iran - and a lot of it.
During the months of fighting since October 7, Hezbollah has used various types of weapons, which it revealed as the campaign progressed. It has used different types of rockets, including Fla" and Burkan, launched katyushas, and Sunday night, according to Hezbollah, also used rockets from the Fadi family. In addition, Hezbollah also used various types of UAVs in the war, some for photography and others for attack, and anti-tank missiles - but the arsenal at its disposal is much larger. In fact, the organization's strategic weapons are located in different areas and even deep in the country.
Hezbollah has the first line of defense in front of the border with Israel, where the simpler rockets are kept, but also short-range missiles with significant warheads that can cause heavy damage. Farther away, in the wide tunnels, among tangled vegetation, on the outskirts of villages, such as the Nabi Shayth is a village in eastern Lebanon, located in the Beqaa Valley and Baalbek District and even in the capital city of Beirut, under buildings, other strategic weapons are kept.
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A Hezbollah rocket site established in the Lebanon Valley, near the smuggling route from the Syrian border
"There are strategic missiles under high-rise buildings," said Ronan Solomon, an intelligence researcher and the owner of the Intelli Times blog. According to him, "In Beirut, a large part of the precision missiles are located near soccer fields and underground complexes, such as parking lots that have been converted for this purpose. The IDF has previously revealed simulations that describe the method. In Baalbek it is hidden under the cover of the mountainous geographical route, and while taking advantage of the green undergrowth on the sides of the ridges."
According to Solomon, Hezbollah also possesses, among other things, air defense batteries, coastal missiles, warning systems and electronic warfare. The person responsible for smuggling all these means from Iran is Brigade 8000 in the Quds Force. "This is a military supply unit. It transfers the weapons that are produced in Iran and deals with several layers of aid for Hezbollah, among other things in aid to the naval force," Solomon explained.
He added that Israel damaged Hezbollah's production chain, so the organization had to move things by land. According to him, these shipments can be seen - and Israel is attacking them. Another advantage, he explained, is that even if Hezbollah decides to shoot from its underground tunnels it will be visible. "All along the Lebanon Valley there is a very complicated vegetation. There they built the tunnel openings under the auspices of the hangars and you can recognize this development over the years," he said. "The tunnel makes it easier for them and shortens their way, because the means of warfare enter from Syria straight there."
Among the familiar, more strategic missiles that are in Hezbollah's hands, there are also the Scud C and Scud D missiles - whose range can reach about 700 kilometers, according to reports. The organization also has rockets from the Zalzal family and Fateh 110 missiles, which according to reports can reach a range of 200 to 300 kilometers.
The names of the missiles can change from country to country even if it is the exact same missile. In fact, many times missiles that pass through the smuggling route of the Shia axis receive a new name in the target countries, sometimes following small changes introduced to the same weapon. In addition, sometimes missiles with the same name, but with different characteristics, exist in different countries.