Israel plans to launch a post-war control model in Gaza, aiming to create “Hamas-free bubbles,” a proposal met with skepticism by those briefed on the matter, the Financial Times reported on Monday. According to six sources who spoke to the publication, the pilot for these “humanitarian enclaves” will soon start in northern Gaza neighborhoods like Atatra, Beit Hanoun, and Beit Lahiya.
Although the IDF is ready to begin the pilot, there is significant skepticism about its success due to Hamas's strong support in Gaza and lukewarm backing from Arab countries. One source called the project “fantasy.”
The plan involves Israel delivering aid through the Erez crossing to vetted local Palestinians, who would then distribute it to residents. Gradually, these locals would take on civil governance responsibilities in the area, with the IDF overseeing security initially.
If successful, Israel intends to expand the “bubbles” southward, aiming to replace Hamas governance nearly 20 years after their takeover of Gaza. A source indicated this plan could also pressure Hamas in the stalled hostage negotiations.
This initiative follows months of international pressure on the Netanyahu government to outline a post-war plan. However, two other briefed sources noted it is merely a continuation of previous Israeli efforts that Hamas quickly thwarted. “We tried this in three different areas in northern and central Gaza, including with local tribes. All were beaten or killed by Hamas,” said a former senior Israeli official involved in the planning.
Another source said that Israel's attempts to find local Palestinians willing to govern Gaza instead of Hamas have been ongoing since November, with no significant success. “This plan is the last attempt. Israel hopes someone—Arab countries or the international community—will pay for it, and locals in Gaza will execute it. But no one is buying it,” he said.
Last weekend, David Ignatius of the Washington Post reported on Gallant’s transition plan, presented to American counterparts during his Washington visit. “This plan will proceed if Hamas continues to reject the ceasefire and hostage deal,” Gallant said.
The plan envisions U.S.-led oversight of the transition, with a potential international force including Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, and Morocco managing security. U.S. forces would provide command, control, and logistics from outside Gaza, possibly from Egypt.
Gradually, a Palestinian force would take over local security responsibilities. American officials support the core of Gallant’s plan but noted that moderate Arab states would not back it unless the Palestinian Authority is directly involved. They also cautioned that these states desire a “political horizon” towards a Palestinian state, which Gallant and most Israelis do not support.
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Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in a situation assessment in Rafah
(Photo: Defense Ministry)
The transition plan will be implemented in phases, starting in northern Gaza and expanding south as conditions permit. Gallant’s vision includes expanding the security “bubbles” to eventually cover 24 governance zones in Gaza. Biden administration officials have supported the idea but remain skeptical about the rapid expansion of these “ink spots” on the map.