Iran is unlikely to attack Israel – if it knows what’s good for it, according to former IDF spokesman Jonathan Conricus.
“It does not make sense for them to strike at Israel again and attack Israel again,” Conricus said during this week’s recording of the new ILTV News Podcast. “They are very exposed and vulnerable. I would turn down the rhetoric, and I would be very careful.”
He explained that if Iran chose to attack Israel a third time, Israel would have “justification” to respond more forcefully than before. Currently, “the situation on the ground… is that Iran, its capital, its most important military infrastructure, its nuclear sites, its economic infrastructure, all of that is now exposed because of what the Israeli Air Force did last round. We peeled away almost all strategic air defenses.”
He added, “The Iranians can talk tough, but in terms of actually doing anything, I would be very surprised if they actually mustered the courage to do it.”
Conricus noted that while Israel could already strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, the question is whether such an attack would be effective. After witnessing Israel’s destruction of Iraq’s nuclear reactor in 1981 and Syria’s in 2007, Iran developed a more clandestine, dispersed, and even underground nuclear program. To inflict long-term strategic consequences, Israel would need much stronger bombs, which it currently lacks.
“I think that what Israel would be able to do would be to deliver a significant blow to the Iranian nuclear military program,” Conricus said. “I am not sure that Israel would be able to take it out in its entirety, and I’m not sure that that would be the wisest thing to do, because it could invite additional Iranian steps and escalate the situation in a way that wouldn’t be good for Israel.”
Instead, he suggested, Israel should focus on applying pressure on the Iranian regime and supporting the Iranian people who have been suffering under its oppression.
Conricus pointed out that tens of millions of Iranians oppose the regime, and there is significant internal unrest in the country.
“I think what the West should be doing… and what Israel is doing is actually thinking about that strategy of helping the Iranian people and opposing the regime. Once that happens, it can set into motion a lot of positive things that would really influence the Middle East. Kinetic action against the Iranian nuclear program is one thing, but I think it’s limited in terms of its scope.
“Attacking the regime itself and supporting the Iranian people is of a totally different dimension, and I think it’s the much smarter, long-term approach.”
07/11/2024 NEWS FLESH
First published: 06:30, 11.07.24