The fall of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria is undoubtedly a welcome strategic shift for Israel. However, as the initial euphoria fades, it's crucial to carefully assess the dangers and opportunities presented by this new reality. Two primary threats stand out: Iran and Turkey.
Tehran’s regime has lost its main foothold in the region, along with the land bridge to its beleaguered proxies in Lebanon. Hamas and Hezbollah have suffered significant blows and even the Houthis in Yemen have received a stark warning about what lies ahead. Yet, Iran retains its nuclear capabilities, as well as its military and political influence in neighboring Iraq.
It hasn’t abandoned its long-term strategic goals, mainly regional hegemony and a global standing as an Islamic power. The danger is that, in its effort to compensate for recent losses, Iran may accelerate its nuclear weapons program.
It’s estimated to be a year away from completing a nuclear arsenal, with delivery mechanisms already in place. This poses a tangible threat, one that Israel must be prepared to neutralize, even unilaterally and through force if necessary.
Turkey, on the other hand, emerges strengthened by the fall of the Damascus regime. Some of the Islamist militias now in power are actively supported and even controlled by Turkey. These groups are ideologically akin to Hamas, espousing a violent, extremist Sunni jihadism.
Turkey may push for their deployment along or near Israel’s border – a prospect Israel cannot afford to allow, as the lessons of October 2023 have shown. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ideological leanings, rooted in the Muslim Brotherhood, have gained momentum and his conciliatory gestures toward Israel are a thing of the past.
Jihadist militias near Israel's northern border represent a palpable security threat. However, it’s worth hoping that the fate of Hamas, their Gazan counterpart, will serve as a cautionary tale for them. Amid these threats, the new situation in Syria also presents Israel with opportunities that didn’t exist before.
Four power groups in Syria have never been Israel's enemies and some have even had positive relations with Israel in the past: the secular opposition to the Assad regime, the Sunni communities in the south, the Kurds who control a third of northeastern Syria and the Druze in the south. These groups may be open to civil engagement with Israel.
Another vital avenue for collaboration must now develop with Jordan. The kingdom has suffered greatly from Iran’s attempts to undermine its stability through its proxies in southern Syria. With these efforts likely shifting to the Jordan-Iraq border, regional actors must do everything possible to bolster Jordan at this critical time.
Efraim SnehPhoto: Itzik BiranThere’s also a unique opportunity for regional cooperation in the civilian arena. The UAE is expected to lead a regional coalition for Syria’s reconstruction – a massive project that includes repatriating millions of Syrian refugees. Israel could offer its involvement.
Get the Ynetnews app on your smartphone: Google Play: https://bit.ly/4eJ37pE | Apple App Store: https://bit.ly/3ZL7iNv
While this might sound far-fetched, anything is possible in the Middle East — not only for the worse but also for the better. As Syria’s most economically and militarily powerful neighbor, Israel could be a significant asset to the new Syria in both respects.
- Efraim Sneh serves as an IDF Brigadier General in the reserves, was former minister and deputy defense minister in Israeli governments, and is a leading Commanders for Israel's Security movement member.