The firing of Defense Minister Yoav Galant on Tuesday evening divides the people and weakens the state of Israel in wartime. And now the Iranians, who last week promised a strong response to the Israeli attack, see what is happening in Israel and understand that their hope is not yet lost.
And as if that is not enough, the immediate and most important result of Gallant's firing is that, from now on, Benjamin Netanyahu is not only the prime minister but also the defense minister. In fact, from now on Netanyahu is the final arbiter in tactical, systemic and strategic security matters. Israel Katz, who will be appointed Defense Minister, will retain his dignity but he is not a security authority vis-à-vis the one above him - Netanyahu - or subordinate to him - the IDF and IDF senior officials.
It is clear based on Katz' political conduct that he will do Netanyahu's bidding, and no more than a supervisor on his behalf of the security system - and especially its senior members, Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar and Mossad head Dedi Barnea - who do not always agree with Netanyahu, mainly in issues related to the abductees and the management of the war in Gaza.
For several days now, there have been rumors in the security establishment, and mainly speculation, about the possibility that the Chief of Staff and the head of the Shin Bet, who report directly to Netanyahu, will resign because of the dispute regarding the need to stop the fighting in Gaza in order to bring about the release of the abductees, but I doubt that this will happen. Halevi and Bar, as well as Barnea, believe that if they leave now - they will cause more damage to the conduct of the war and Israel's security than they will provide a service to the public.
Therefore, even though Gallant served to a large extent as a mentor to the Chief of Staff, the head of the Shin Bet and the head of the Mossad, they will learn and know how to get along with the new situation, where in fact all the heads of the security system, including Halevi and the General Staff champions, are directly managed by Netanyahu.
This is not expected to have a direct impact on the army, but it may cause senior officers who hold opinions different from those of Major General Halevi to try their luck with the Prime Minister and his ministers, which may undermine discipline in the IDF. The entire army will adapt by nature and knows how to accept instructions provided they are legal. Therefore, if a shock is expected, it is mainly in the level of the generals of the General Staff, that is, the Chief of Staff and perhaps some sub-generals who are now warming up on the lines.
But apart from the influence on the security system, Gallant's presence in the Ministry of Defense also transmitted to the general public stability and a professional and experienced hand at the wheel. When Galant, as Minister of Defense, approved operations or came to frequently visit the various fronts - it had the effect of instilling confidence in the civilian public, except for the extreme right sector that opposed Galant and hated him.
The polls conducted among the public, including among Israeli Arabs, gave Galant and his performance very high marks, far beyond what the other ministers - and Netanyahu - also received. And perhaps this is one of the main reasons Netanyahu wanted to get rid of Gallant: Netanyahu never tolerated people who qualified for him or were potential heirs. In fact, he has always mowed down such people, or sent them to prestigious positions - but ones that do not allow them to threaten him as prime minister.
The evasion financing law, disagreements, the USA - and cases: the reasons for the dismissals
The immediate and clear reasons for Gallant's removal are four: his opposition to the evasion financing law (the dormitory law), the differences of opinion between him and Netanyahu, the elections in the USA and the scandals involving the Prime Minister's Office .
The first reason, as mentioned, is the defense minister's opposition to the evasion law and the dormitories law, which is in fact a bypass for fixing in the law the ultra-Orthodox evasion from enlisting in the IDF. Netanyahu feared that if at least one of these laws was not passed, the ultra-Orthodox rabbis, led by Rabbi Hadmor Magor - would carry out their threats, withdraw from the coalition and go to the elections. Netanyahu saw the need to eliminate this threat, and Gallant stood in his way. In this context, it should be remembered that only today Gallant instructed the IDF to recruit 7,000 ultra-Orthodox soldiers , which increased the anger and fears of the ultra-Orthodox. Netanyahu understood that he had to take action, therefore the removal of Galant was done first and foremost to preserve the coalition and the government led by Netanyahu - and it has nothing to do with the conduct of the war.
The second important reason is the differences of opinion that existed as mentioned between Netanyahu and Galant and the other security establishment officials on the question of the abductees and the fighting in Gaza. Already during the year there were actually quite a few disagreements between the parties, but they were matters and thus they were also resolved. When the Prime Minister decided, for example, not to attack Lebanon, when Gallant and Levy proposed it on October 11, a few days after the October 7 massacre , no one in the security establishment thought that this was an illegitimate decision stemming from irrelevant motives.
It was the same when Netanyahu delayed the start of the ground maneuver in the Gaza Strip, and then regarding the entry into Rafah. There were major differences of opinion - but they were matters and stemmed from the complex national and international situation in which the war was conducted. But in the matter of the abductees, between Galant and the heads of the security establishment and Netanyahu, fundamental differences of opinion were revealed. Their main point: Netanyahu is not ready to stop the war in Gaza in order to bring about the release of the abductees, while Gallant, the Chief of Staff, the head of the Shin Bet and the head of the Mossad, believe that in exchange for the release of all the abductees alive, it is possible to stop the war and finish what needs to be finished in the Gaza Strip at a later date.
There is a consensus in the security establishment that Hamas will give us an opportunity to do it sooner or later, but Netanyahu does not accept this opinion - and wants to continue until complete victory, in which Hamas will surrender and then release the abductees. But this position was opposed by a significant part of the public that supports the families of the abductees - and he did not want Gallant to continue to strike.
The third reason for the timing, which has been hanging in the air for quite some time, was, as mentioned, the US elections. Public attention, Netanyahu apparently believes, will allow this move to go through - without provoking a strong public protest like last time. It's not only the US elections, but also the fact that the public The number of people who took to the streets to protest has dwindled in the last year of the war, and a significant portion of them serve in the reserves, leading to the decision regarding the timing. But as can be seen in the last few hours, the hope that the move would pass without a massive public protest was misplaced - and crowds took to the streets .
The fourth reason as mentioned is the affair of the secret documents and the other affair whose investigation was revealed today , in which the Prime Minister's Office is involved - and Netanyahu is involved in them, even if not directly.
Netanyahu will also be the Minister of Defense: the impact on the war and the international consequences
It must be said honestly, Gallant was indeed contrary to me in his dealings with the Prime Minister. He often disputed it, embarrassed Netanyahu and challenged his authority several times, sometimes openly and sometimes behind the scenes - but he fulfilled his role as Minister of Defense with loyalty to the people of Israel, professionally, with a lot of emotional intelligence, and for that we owe him thanks. From now on we will have to get used to the fact that Netanyahu is not only the all-powerful prime minister - but also the defense minister.
protesters clash with police after Gallant ousting
(police)
By the way, this is not the first time that heads of government in Israel, starting with Ben-Gurion, have served as full or actual defense ministers. For Ben-Gurion, this was successful, and he also made a commitment due to the circumstances in which the war of liberation was conducted. But Ben-Gurion enjoyed almost complete public trust - even from his political opponents. And as for Netanyahu, it is an open secret that half of the people do not trust his management abilities and his motives - and do not trust him.
Regarding the international consequences of Gallant's dismissal, it is quite clear that the American administration, whether it is Kamala Harris the president or whether it is Donald Trump - this will have a distinctly negative effect on the conduct of the war in coordination with our sponsoring power. The simple reason is that Gallant managed to create a close and good relationship with the Pentagon and the US Central Command (CENTCOM). This fact, by the way, was one of the issues that greatly worsened the relationship between Gallant and Netanyahu. The Prime Minister simply believed, and probably rightly so, that the Americans were bypassing him through the close relationship and the intimate communication with Gallant, so for example he did not let him travel to the USA as a means of forcing President Joe Biden to communicate with him, as everyone remembers.
The Biden administration, which will continue to govern until January 21, when the new president is sworn in, is not a fan of Netanyahu, and this could probably affect both the military aid we will receive and the political aspects of the conduct of the war, including the plan for the day after in Gaza. Even if Trump is elected, Netanyahu's path will not be very easy, because Trump has already openly expressed his anger, and perhaps even his distaste, for Netanyahu several times. There is no doubt that the prime minister believes that he can repair relations with Trump, and that he prefers the capricious and easily influenced Trump rule to Kamala Harris as president.
But the bottom line is that Netanyahu, as Minister of Defense, will be much less able than Gallant to promote the interests of the State of Israel. This is also true for the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Jordan and Egypt, which do not hide their differences of opinion and opposition to Netanyahu, and especially to the political line he leads, which opposes a Palestinian state. Gallant, on the other hand, might have promoted an alternative government to Hamas in Gaza - which is so necessary to end the war. Netanyahu will sit and wait for the Americans, the Emiratis, the Egyptians and the Jordanians to do the work for him, even if it does not advance the establishment of a Palestinian state. And even if this policy succeeds for Netanyahu - it will greatly prolong the war in Gaza and certainly will not advance the release of the abductees.
On the issue of the firing of the Chief of Staff and the head of the Shin Bet, it is likely that Netanyahu will not fire them because the shock will be too great in the war management system and public trust. Netanyahu as the actual Minister of Defense will have no difficulty directing them as he wishes, and the two are expected to resign if they see that the chances of returning the abductees are zero. But in conclusion, it can be estimated that Gallant's dismissal will not advance the conduct of the war towards a complete victory - they will only prolong it.
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