"The situation in the north cannot continue. We need to change the balance and must return the residents home. This will not be done without changing the balance vis-à-vis Hezbollah. The IDF must prepare for a broad campaign in Lebanon," Netanyahu told his Security Cabinet.
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Possible escalation between Israel and Hezbollah
(Photo: Reuters/ REUTERS / Aziz Taher / shutterstock / Ronen Zvulun)
Netanyahu's words at the cabinet' meeting on Thursday night, more than 11 months after Hezbollah joined Hamas in attacking Israel, were said even before Hezbollah launched dozens of rockets into Israel over the weekend. On Saturday night, the IDF attacked Hezbollah's ammunition depots both in southern Lebanon and in the north, more than 150 kilometers from Israel's borders.
The Israeli officials discussing the U.S. diplomatic effort in Lebanon, headed by envoy Amos Hochstein, are not producing any results. Although Israel is giving the American initiative another chance, it has conveyed there might be no choice but to resort to a broad military campaign in the north. According to an Israeli senior official, a military campaign in the north is a matter of time, ranging from a few weeks to a few months. Even before the operation in Rafah, Netanyahu had announced the approval of operational plans for such an operation. However, its' start was delayed before the IDF could begin.
Israeli officials at the discussion doubted a diplomatic solution would solve the current conflict and return the displaced northern residents home. "Who will return home because Nasrallah will sign a paper?" security officials wondered. "How likely is it that will he agree to disarm and retreat north of the Litani River? It is a dream, and it will not happen. That is why the defense establishment understands that we will probably have to go to war to bring the people home."
According to the officials, the war is built on two pillars: international legitimacy and arms management. After a major build-up, the IDF's level of armaments is similar to the levels of before October 7. The IDF stated it is ready with the necessary armaments and plans in the case of an escalation.
Although the government has not decided on whether to launch a military campaign in Lebanon, Netanyahu has accepted the IDF's statement and instructed the army to prepare for a broad campaign. In Israel, they are aiming to change the balance in the conflict against Hezbollah, and at the same time increase the pressure on the U.S. to possibly finalize the settlement.
A senior security official estimated that Iran has not attacked Israel yet due to its fear of the American military presence. However, Iran may choose to act if Israel directly confronts Hezbollah in Lebanon. Thus, according to the source, Iran will be able to engage Israel in three arenas. On Monday, Biden's envoy Amos Hochstein will land in Israel. The Americans fear that war will break out and throw additional countries into a regional war. Washington hopes to postpone the war until after the upcoming U.S. elections, fearing for Vice President Kamala Harris' political campaign.
Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant disagree on a few issues regarding the U.S. attempt to reach a diplomatic settlement. Netanyahu believes that the chances of an agreement are slim, but Gallant believes the U.S. move will succeed. In addition to Hochstein's visit, the cabinet will discuss on Monday adding the safe return of the displaced northern residents to their homes to the war's objectives.
The concern: Neglect of the hostages in Gaza
During the weekly Bring Them Back Home rally, the Hostages and Missing Families Forum expressed their concern that moving the focus of the war to the north will lead to the abandonment of the remaining 101 hostages in Gaza. Security officials also expressed a similar concern in the discussion that took place on Thursday, saying that a campaign in the north means that the hostages in Gaza are negligible. Netanyahu believes that the link between the hostage deal and the northern campaign is false and that Israel should return them regardless of the war in the north, but Gallant believes the opposite.
Israel believes that the U.S. will mediate between the sides only after the administration feels it is possible to bring Hamas to the negotiating table. Israel conveyed to the Americans that they must come to an understanding with Egypt and Qatar. Israel must agree with Egypt on an Israeli presence in the Philadelphi Corridor while it will demand Qatar pressure the Hamas leadership residing in the country in the form of deportation, sanctions and extradition.
At the end of the day, Hamas decides whether to move forward with the deal, but the mediators' role is to get Sinwar to come to the table. According to Israel, that is unlikely at this point.
An Israeli source privy to the details said that if Israel reaches agreements with Egypt on what the Israeli presence in the Philadelphi Corridor will look like, it will be more difficult for Hamas to continue the fight. Currently, the Egyptians are fortifying in their position, which is closer to that of Hamas. The Egyptians essentially became a party to the negotiation, and not just mediators since they refused an Israeli presence. At the same time, Israeli military pressure on Hamas continues. Israel will not give up its military presence to maintain pressure to reach a deal. This pressure should persist and increase.