Security officials now see an opportunity for a breakthrough in the negotiations to free the Israeli hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, and have recommended to the political leadership to seize this chance to end the war in Gaza temporarily and make a deal, according to senior IDF officials who are in key positions, including some who were skeptical in the past that a deal could be reached.
Their view relies on a configuration of a number of factors that together change the reality on the ground: the end to the fighting in Lebanon; the separation of fronts and deployment of most of the military to Gaza; the situation in Syria; internal pressure inside the strip; public pressure on the Israeli government; and, finally, the incoming Trump administration. All those, the officials said were in addition to the efforts of Egypt to advance a deal.
Although no concrete offer has been put on the table, the IDF and security officials observe a path for Hamas to agree to a cease-fire. A senior official who spoke to Ynet said that if such a deal would be agreed, its details were still unclear, but Israel was at a critical time and that could change the nature of the war.
Despite what some see as a missed opportunity, the cease-fire deal in Lebanon has the potential to put significant pressure on Hamas in Gaza. While Hezbollah has been an insurance policy for Hamas since the Oct. 7 massacre, it has now abandoned the Islamist group in Gaza.
Israel's attention and military might has now shifted its focused on the strip and there is unity between the government and the new Trump administration. All those have a significant effect on the decision makers who are still hiding in the tunnels in Gaza.
Inside Gaza there is growing discontent after the civilian population has suffered the effects of the war. "There are large families challenging Hamas and no longer accepting its authority," the officials said, although they added that this reality was still a far cry from a real uprising.
"Hamas' military infrastructure is all but destroyed. The only thing the terror-group has is the public, so it is directing its remaining efforts towards maintaining its basic governing abilities." The officials believe a deal now, could help Hamas stabilize its rule and preserve its position among Gazans and remove any opposition groups, such as those families which are fighting for control of the humanitarian aid, using violent means.
COGAT delivers aid to Gazans
(COGAT)
The officials agree that Hamas would not easily give up the hostages, who are the final negotiating tool left in its arsenal. The hostages, both dead and alive, are the only factor keeping Hamas in power, they said.
While there might still be compromise, including over some IDF forces remaining along the Phildelphi Corridor and in the area near the border with Israel, a withdrawal from the Netzarim Corridor would for Israel mean there is no military presence in Gaza proper.
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Another obstacle would be the release of convicted Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails. The IDF and Shin Bet have been working for the past year, to "clean" Gaza from terrorists and a deal could return hardened terrorists back into the strip to rebuild Hamas.
But despite those obstacles and any other demands that Hamas or the Egyptians might inject into the negotiations, the security officials believe this is the best time to reach a deal. The fighting in Jabaliya continues, Rafah is all but destroyed, 90% of the population of the Strip is concentrated around Khan Younis and the military is prepared to launch its offensive in other areas.