Over the weekend, a series of developments reignited the possibility of a hostage release deal. Israeli officials now estimate that if an agreement is reached, it could happen within two to three weeks. The exact number of hostages to be released remains uncertain.
Hamas' new obstacle and admission
A Hamas delegation met with Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah on Friday in Beirut, informing him that the group has "agreed to a cease-fire." On Saturday, a Hamas official confirmed to the Associated Press that the organization had withdrawn its demand for Israel to pre-commit to halting the war in Gaza as part of the hostage release deal. The Hamas official, along with an Egyptian source, said that in the first phase, Israel, Hamas and the mediators would negotiate the conditions for the second phase, which would include the release of male hostages.
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Hamas leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
(Photo: IDF Spokesperson's Unit, Yonatan Sindel)
However, Hamas is now insisting on a new written commitment from Israel to continue negotiations for a permanent agreement once the first phase is in effect. A Hamas official told the AP that the organization received verbal assurances and "guarantees" that the war would not resume and that negotiations would continue until a full cease-fire agreement is reached.
Israel's message: Hamas must accept proposal as is
Mossad Director David Barnea, who held cease-fire talks in Qatar over the weekend, conveyed to mediators in Doha that for progress on a hostage release deal, Hamas must agree to the proposed framework without any changes, Ynet learned on Saturday.
The New York Times reported Saturday that Barnea emphasized Hamas' new demand was a significant departure from the proposal adopted by the UN Security Council and U.S. President Joe Biden.
A senior source speaking to the Times clarified that Hamas' demand would allow it to draw out negotiations indefinitely, potentially for weeks or months. According to the source, Hamas wants to ensure it doesn’t release most hostages to Israel and then see the IDF resume military action.
Barnea's visit lasted several hours and addressed unresolved issues. He met with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed Al Thani and other senior officials, including Egyptian intelligence representatives. The discussions were conducted in a positive spirit, with an understanding that remaining gaps need to be bridged.
What's next?
A dual delegation of working teams is slated to depart on Monday for Doha, Qatar, and Cairo, Egypt, to hold talks on the hostage deal proposal. Meanwhile, CIA Director Bill Burns is expected to visit the region to hold a summit supporting the negotiations.
This summit will include Barnea, Al Thani and Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel. The summit is likely to take place in Qatar but could also be held in Cairo. Burns may also visit Israel to ensure Israel's agreement to the deal.
Meanwhile, a senior Egyptian official told local network Al Qahera News that American and Israeli delegations will be hosted in Egypt to discuss the gaps, noting that Cairo is also holding talks with Hamas. "Egypt will hold intensive meetings with all parties during the coming week to push for a ceasefire agreement," the official added.
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Hamas leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar, Qatar Emir Tamim Al Thani and Mossad Director David Barnea
(Photo: Reuters, EPA, Amir Katz)
Meanwhile, senior Hamas official Hussam Badran told Qatar's Al Araby network that "our main starting point in the negotiations is stopping the war against Gaza. There is a positive outlook from the mediators toward the movement's latest position. No step in the agreement will be implemented until after the cease-fire."
When can we expect a deal?
The prevailing assessment among Israeli officials in recent days is that the negotiations will take at least two to three more weeks. However, the Prime Minister's Office noted that significant gaps between the parties remain.
Hamas has expressed concern Israel will restart the war after the hostages are released. Israeli officials have said they are worried Hamas will draw out the talks and the initial cease-fire indefinitely, without releasing all the hostages.
According to the proposed framework, the cease-fire will commence with an initial three-day truce, after which Hamas will release three women. On the seventh day, the terror group will release four more women. Israel believes that 11 of the women held hostage in Gaza are alive: six civilians and five soldiers.
In the second phase, men are expected to be released. In the third phase, the bodies of the hostages will be returned, initiating a lengthy process of rebuilding the Gaza Strip.