U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to Hamas that “all hell will break out” if a hostage deal isn’t reached by the time he again enters office sounds like a grand promise to Israeli ears. However, it’s essentially an empty threat – what more could be done to Hamas that the IDF hasn’t already accomplished?
Gaza is in ruins, Hamas is dismantled and on the defensive, most Gazans are displaced and even if the U.S. were to send planes to bomb Gaza — which, of course, won’t happen — the outcome would remain the same.
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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump
(Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images North America / AFP)
A full hostage deal is possible only if Israel changes its policy and agrees to end the war. But if reports from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office are accurate and Israel is only willing to agree to a limited cease-fire, then nothing has truly changed except for the transition of a new administration into the White House.
This makes the rumored deal the first significant test of Trump’s Middle East policy. Four possible scenarios emerge in this context:
The empty threats scenario: Trump’s threatening declarations may turn out to be as hollow as his past threats — like those he made of building a wall around Mexico. With Hamas having nothing left to lose, it won’t compromise despite the threats, and Israeli enthusiasm for Trump’s presidency may prove illusory.
The swift resolution scenario: The less likely option is that Trump’s declarations and presence in the White House truly expedites the return of hostages, possibly even before January 20, as he demanded in his recent press conference.
The partial deal scenario: In a quintessentially Trumpian move, a deal might be struck but remain incomplete. Some hostages would return, bringing temporary joy, but others would remain in Hamas tunnels and the war would persist. This would be a deceptive resolution — offering the illusion of progress while leaving the fundamental issues unresolved.
The silent pressure scenario: Behind the scenes, Trump might be pressuring Israel to agree to a total halt to the war, with the cease-fire framed as temporary for the sake of Netanyahu’s political considerations. In reality, this could pave the way for a complete cessation of hostilities, explaining Hamas' willingness to release the hostages.
All of these possibilities are plausible to varying degrees, given Trump’s two conflicting tendencies: his clear support for Israel, including bold threats against its enemies and his desire to avoid unnecessary bloodshed and end wars as he’s stressed regarding both Gaza and Ukraine.
Trump’s aversion to deploying American troops in avoidable global conflicts further complicates predictions. Perhaps this tension between his positions is the key to Trump’s appeal for many.
His speeches touch on two universal human sensitivities: the need for dignity — hence his frequent threats — and the desire to preserve life, driving his preference for deals over wars.
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This duality makes it challenging to predict developments under his leadership. It also sheds light on his threats against Canada, Denmark and Panama. Either Trump will prove to be a master negotiator who secures significant economic gains for the U.S. through verbal threats alone or his presidency will see America emulating Putin’s territorial ambitions through force.
In any case, Israel is merely a supporting actor in someone else’s production when it comes to making a deal with Hamas.