Over the weekend, Israel launched a powerful attack deep into Iran, demonstrating its capability to strike critical targets across the country at will. This show of force could pave the way for future strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities or energy infrastructure.
Did Israel’s recent action weaken Iran’s leadership, or might it provoke retaliation?
Two influential Iranian dissidents – Marty Youssefiani, a veteran campaign strategist who served as senior counselor to Iran’s crown prince, and Mohsen Sazegara, former Islamic Republic Deputy Prime Minister and founder of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards – discuss these questions on the latest episode of ILTV’s Insider.
“No regime change can ever be accomplished through military actions,” Youssefiani told Insider. “What needs to be done is more investment in the Iranian people.”
According to Youssefiani, much like Soviet Communism, Islamist governance in Iran is “destined to fall” because it offers “an epic but dark ideology.” He said that over the past 45 years, the people of Iran have witnessed the incompetence and corruption of living under a kleptocracy, and the world will see it too when the regime is no more. However, Youssefiani cautioned, this is not a war that can be won by missiles.
“This is a war of narratives that we can only win by winning the hearts and minds of the Iranian people, giving them the courage and confidence to stand up,” he said.
However, there is hope that some military pressure may help convince the Iranian regime itself that it may be time for change. Sazegara noted that, for at least the last 25 years, Iranian military doctrine has centered on three pillars: asymmetric warfare or terrorist groups, missiles, and, as a deterrent, its nuclear project. Since Iranian proxy Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, and its other proxy, Hezbollah, began attacking Israel on October 8, Israel has managed to nearly dismantle these terrorist groups.
“The Iranian regime now has a big question,” Sazegara said. “Now is the time for the leaders of Iran to think about the political consequences of such a defeat in its military doctrine.”
For more episodes of Insider, click here.
First published: 05:44, 10.30.24