In his first speech as Hezbollah's new Secretary-General, Sheikh Naim Qassem — a role he assumed just a day prior — struggled to deliver a coherent and unified message. Although he spoke in a calm tone, avoiding the theatrics of his predecessor, Hassan Nasrallah, who often laughed, cried and flashed mischievous smiles at the cameras, Sheikh Naim's messages came across as confused.
On one hand, he threatened to strike the prime minister’s residence, expressing hope that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would be present to injure him. On the other, he said, "We don’t want war; we only aim to respond to the Zionists’ actions."
Qassem's attempts to convince Israelis that “while we didn’t initiate the war, we wouldn’t mind if it lasts more days, weeks, or even months,” sounded unconvincing. He spoke as if reading from a script, reiterating that "the path of the martyr Nasrallah is my path as well," and that “we’ll only fight if war is imposed upon us, with the second generation of Hezbollah soldiers, as brave and heroic as their predecessors who were killed and injured in the beeper and walkie-talkie attacks by Israel.”
Meanwhile, Lebanese residents appeared to ignore the new secretary-general’s debut entirely. Signs continue to grow that an agreement is taking shape between Israel and Lebanon, brokered by U.S. Middle East envoy Amos Hochstein.
Hochstein believes that barring "disruptions or last-minute surprises," a deal could be reached after extensive efforts between Beirut and Tel Aviv's military headquarters, even before the U.S. presidential elections on November 5.
From Hochstein’s perspective, it's preferable to finalize it before a new president is elected, as it’s difficult to predict what could happen with Donald Trump (though Hochstein doesn’t say it outright).
Hochstein’s Lebanese counterpart, in whose office the negotiations are taking place, is Nabih Berri, the 86-year-old Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament since 1992 and leader of the Shiite Amal party. Having seen four Lebanese presidents come and go during his tenure, Berri is deeply acquainted with Lebanese politics and political leaders of all factions now seek his advice — advice it seems he hardly needs.
Veteran politician Gebran Bassil, son-in-law of former president Michel Aoun, made a surprising announcement this week, saying, “Lebanon supports the Abraham Accords and will join agreements with Israel when conditions allow.”
Other senior Lebanese officials are starting to align with Israel as well. There’s also mounting pressure on the Iranian regime not to deploy forces to Lebanon and to withdraw “Iranian volunteers from Hezbollah camps because we can manage on our own.” Statements like these were unheard of until recent days.
The agreement’s main points are clear: Hezbollah will be called to withdraw from southern Lebanon and Israel will ensure that Hezbollah has no presence along the border up to the Litani River. The Lebanese army, led by its commander Joseph Aoun — currently seen as the leading candidate for the presidency — will assume control.
However, Lebanon's army is small and it will need to recruit thousands of young (and unemployed) men for short basic training to take positions in southern Lebanon and at other points likely to see clashes with Hezbollah.
It seems that a common language has already been established between U.S. envoy Hochstein and Beirut's Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. Both Berri and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati — who’s eager to step down from the role — are careful to avoid harsh words or threats against Israel.
The goal, facilitated by Hochstein, is to create an Israeli-Lebanese understanding that would allow Lebanon to function as a stable state once again and work to overcome severe economic hardships that have pushed at least 1.5 million citizens into poverty.
Reports claim there won’t be a publicly signed agreement but rather "understandings." UN Resolution 1701, which ended the Second Lebanon War in 2006, unequivocally states that Hezbollah is forbidden from operating in southern Lebanon, the area should be kept under civilian agricultural control and Hezbollah’s weapons caches and operatives posing as civilians should be removed.
Until these "understandings" are finalized, it's worth noting some facts about Qassem: he’s married, a father of six and recognized as one of Hezbollah’s founding members in 1982. Holding a master’s degree in chemistry, Qassem has authored 25 books, the most famous of which examines Hezbollah's ideological, social and organizational framework — a "must-read" for Hezbollah operatives and international researchers alike.
Qassem is aware of the threat issued by Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who described his appointment as "temporary, with the countdown already underway." However, Qassem chose to deliberately ignore this in his speech on Wednesday.
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