Hamas and the Palestinian Authority have only two avenues left to stop the IDF's advancing operation in the Gaza Strip and the dismantling of Hamas' military power. The first is a hostage release deal. The second, which came to light again on Thursday, is international pressure on humanitarian grounds, which will force Israel – mainly as a result of U.S. intervention – to completely halt the fighting in Gaza.
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Hamas leadership already understands that Israel is willing to make concessions regarding a hostage deal, but won’t commit to ending the fighting under any circumstances. Therefore, Hamas has turned to international pressure, hoping to compel the IDF to stop the war.
This is also why the Palestinian Health Ministry - and Palestinian Authority spokesmen under Mahmoud Abbas’ leadership - are trying to turn the tragic incident in Gaza caused during the unloading of humanitarian aid trucks into a "massacre" for which Israel and the IDF are responsible. Thus, even before all the details and casualty figures were clarified, the incident had already acquired a catchy name: the “Al-Rashid Massacre.”
Since the early morning hours, the Palestinians have been trying to ignite a public opinion bomb that will finally, they hope, halt the IDF's ground operation in the Gaza Strip. The one currently at the forefront of this battle for public opinion is the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit. It must show, providing solid evidence, that Israel isn’t responsible for the stampede and that, even if IDF soldiers fired at the looters, they weren’t what caused the large number of casualties.
We encountered a similar situation at the beginning of the ground operation in the Strip, when an Islamic Jihad rocket fell in the courtyard of a hospital in the northern Gaza Strip and killed dozens of Palestinians. It took hours until U.S. President Joe Biden 'dismantled' this public opinion bomb when he announced that Israeli evidence showed it wasn’t an IDF missile but a failed Palestinian rocket launch that caused the incident.
Three separate incidents happened during aid delivery
The IDF's claims regarding what happened on Thursday are more complex to prove, as there were essentially three different incidents that began at 4:00 a.m. Humanitarian aid trucks, mainly carrying food, entered the northern part of the Strip through an IDF checkpoint.
Footage of Gazan stampede
(Video: IDF Spokesperson's Unit: )
The thousands of Gazans who stormed and attempted to loot the food from the trucks – as seen in the footage filmed by an Israeli drone – were either trampled by the crowd or run over by drivers trying to escape.
This was the first incident, clearly visible in the drone footage, and in which the IDF had no involvement. Immediately after this event, there was another attempt to loot the trucks. During this incident, armed individuals – likely Hamas terrorists or members of other terror organizations – fired at the crowd to deter them or to steal from the trucks themselves.
The IDF was, in fact, directly involved only in the third incident, where part of the Gazan crowd that tried to approach the trucks came within tens of meters of IDF soldiers - probably because they fled from the terrorists or tried to approach the food trucks from another direction.
In this event, according to an IDF officer who commanded the tanks on-site, IDF soldiers felt threatened, fired warning shots in the air, and then fired at the feet of the advancing crowd. There’s no specific documentation for this event that the IDF can obtain to refute the Palestinian claims. However, what the IDF can argue and show through the footage taken from the air, is that most of the casualties occurred in incidents where the military wasn’t involved.
A legitimate fight
We must hope that Israel will succeed in refuting the Palestinian claims, which are clearly exaggerated and false.
What might help in this regard is the fact that journalists from CNN and other international media outlets who interviewed Palestinians were present there, with the Gazans recounting that the truck drivers ran over a significant portion of the looters, and that the crowd trampled over many others.
However, the battle for public opinion in this matter is still ongoing and may have implications for both the continuation of the fighting and the negotiations for a hostage deal.
Hamas has already announced it may suspend or delay the negotiations for a deal following Thursday morning's stampede, but it’s reasonable to assume that this is part of the psychological warfare routine the terrorist organization has conducted since the start of the war.
The same goes for U.S. media outlets claiming that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is satisfied with the progress of the fighting in Gaza and doesn’t feel any pressure right now. Nevertheless, there’s still a possibility that, as in Operation Grapes of Wrath in the 1990s or during the Second Lebanon War, the U.S. and international public opinion will pressure Israel to stop the fighting.
Even without such tragic events, the international legitimacy that the current government has to engage in self-defense is at an all-time low.
Strategically and diplomatically, Israel needs to take proactive moves to minimize the number of incidents that would allow Hamas and the Palestinian Authority to reap such public relations achievements in the international arena as much as possible, which may harm - and even undo – Israel’s legitimacy to fight until all war objectives are complete.
The writing was already on the wall concerning humanitarian aid and looting; As soon as looting incidents began, it was clear that when they occurred in an area under IDF control Israel would be held responsible. This is always the case when you are the strong power in the area, whether you like it or not.
Israel’s responsibility stems from both international law and international media, which holds Israel responsible for what is happening. Therefore, it’s preferable that Israeli politicians finally decide on a post-war plan, and then the IDF – or other entities on its behalf – will be responsible for securing and distributing the aid themselves.
Then the forces overseeing the entry of aid trucks will be equipped with riot gear, and will be able to avoid live fire in case of rioting. Israel and the War Cabinet must provide the IDF with the political and legal framework to deal with the civilian population in Gaza as soon as possible, otherwise, it may not achieve its war goals.