Even long-time veterans of life in the Middle East find it sometimes hard to believe how quickly what was considered impossible becomes reality. There is nothing to do but look ahead to the next challenge. These rapid upheavals also bring new threats.
After the failures of the October 7 massacre, that have left deep scars in the military intelligence, there is now an effort to not consider the collapse of the Shiite axis as the end of the chapter but rather to observe the new threats emerging after the fall of the Assad regime and the victory over Hezbollah. All eyes are on Jordan and the West Bank.
There are two indications of developments there. One is the battles for control in Jenin, between the Palestinian Authority security services and terrorists, among them Hamas operatives.
The other is the rare visit to Jordan of Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar and the head of the IDF's military intelligence, General Shlomi Binder. Not much is known about their trip but it is more than likely that they discussed concerns over the kingdom's security and efforts by local groups to bring to Amman a revolution like the one in Syria.
Such an eventuality, IDF officials believe, could quickly spread to Palestinian cities in the West Bank. The domino effect of the 2011 Arab Spring is not out of the question in the current circumstances. The concerns are clear after the Shiite axis that appeared strong after the October 7 attacks was weakened by the fall of Assad.
Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei in a speech last week, tried to explain to his citizens why tens of billions of dollars were spent over decades on a failed dictatorship that was revealed to be fragile and weak. The truth is that the Iranians will have to ponder their strategy of establishing proxy forces, where Iranian funds were also spent, amid the current twists in the plot.
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Deposed Syrian dictator Bashar Assad with Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khanenei
(Photo: Ali Haj Suleiman / Getty Images, AP)
Ali Khamenei speaks after the fall of the Assad regime
Those proxies, first among them Hezbollah, which were there to defend Iran in case of an Israeli attack on the Iranian nuclear program, have failed. The fall of the regime in Syria signifies a new reality in Iran and requires a different approach to achieving its aims.
Will Iran now break through to nuclear capability, as some in the West believe, or would it opt for a quick deal with the incoming Trump administration, which despite the tough talk seeks to avoid a war that would affect American economy.
The new leader of Hezbollah, Naim Qassem. also seems despondent in his recent public appearance, admitting the loss of his ally Assad means the loss of the most significant logistical supply route to arm his terror group. The Assad regime not only allowed weapons from Iran to be delivered to Hezbollah via Syria but also produced many of the missiles that were used against Israel in the war.
Hezbollah's finances were based mostly on Iranian oil deliveries to Syria and the profits from its sale that went to the Lebanon-based proxy. In other words the fall of the Syrian regime is not only a blow to Hezbollah's military capabilities but also to its finances, at a time when it must compensate the Shiite residents of South Lebanon who have lost their homes in the war.
The repercussions are felt in the West Bank as well. Already there are confrontations in Jenin between armed gangs and the PA security forces. The cabinet convened at the IDF Central Command on Sunday for good reason. The concerns over terror attacks and violence that events in Syria would inspire, has grown.
The PA said its counter-terror operation is to reinstate its control against the criminals who are "disrupting the daily lives of residents there and preventing them from receiving services and living in freedom and security."
It is no surprise that the PA reacted to the threat of terror and was trying to prove its ability to rule, so that it would be called to govern Gaza after the war. This is an important test case for the Palestinian leadership and Israel should pay close attention to its outcome.
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There have been reports of previous attempts by Iran to destabilize the Jordanian regime and to use Jordan as a new base of operations, to launch terror attacks against Israel. The IDF was right to establish an new division tasked with protecting the eastern border, as well as constructing a barrier along the frontier. The visit to Amman by Bar and Binder most likely touched on that subject as well.
All of these concerns add to the obvious challenges that has emerged in light of the never-ending war: forcefully ensuring compliance with the cease-fire agreement in Lebanon, ending the war against Hamas and securing the release of the Israeli hostages still held in Gaza – whether through an agreement or by military force, and responding to the Houthi rebels' attacks.