Israeli officials acknowledged Monday night that they remain uncertain about the precise number of Hamas prisoners, out of an expected 1,300, to be released in a looming hostage deal.
Israel has effectively withdrawn its demand for a list of living captives from Hamas, which has yet to provide such documentation. The initial release of 33 hostages includes women, children, elderly individuals over 50 and the injured or ill, none of whom have been declared deceased. However, officials caution that some may not be alive, leaving the criteria for the initial release phase unresolved.
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Israeli estimates suggest that most of the 33 captives, including female soldiers, civilians and children, are likely alive. The agreement outlines a phased release schedule over 42 days, beginning with women and children, followed by female soldiers.
Although the deal is structured in three stages, Israeli officials believe it may be condensed into two. The first phase includes a 42-day cease-fire, with discussions on subsequent phases expected to begin on the 16th day.
Israel aims to finalize and announce the agreement as early as Tuesday. Preparations are underway in the Prime Minister's Office for expedited approval. Once the deal is ratified by the Cabinet and the government, the list of prisoners to be released will be published, allowing the public less than 48 hours to submit appeals to the Supreme Court. Officials hope to implement the agreement this week, ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20.
Diplomatic sources expressed cautious optimism, describing the negotiations as "at a very advanced stage." However, a senior official warned that "we are not yet at the final closure phase. We hope there will be agreement on the deal’s components, but this does not depend on us."
A source familiar with the talks told Reuters that the agreement is "closer than ever." Negotiators are set to hold another round of talks Tuesday morning to finalize details. Expected participants include Trump envoy Steve Witkoff, Biden envoy Brett McGurk and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed Al-Thani.
Hamas commandos will remain behind bars; murderers will be exiled
The senior Israeli official said that members of Hamas’ elite Nukhba forces captured in Gaza will not be released in the initial stages of the deal. Convicted murderers who are freed as part of the agreement will not return to the West Bank but will instead be exiled to Gaza or abroad, with Qatar and Turkey emerging as potential destinations, according to reports in Arab media.
Diplomatic sources said that "significant assets," including geographic leverage and prisoners, will be reserved for subsequent negotiations until all hostages—alive and deceased—are returned. They noted that while a similar number of prisoner releases was discussed in May, Hamas at the time had proposed returning only a small number of living hostages. "Recently, Hamas has shown movement," the officials added.
Despite Arab media reports suggesting otherwise, Hamas has yet to provide a definitive response to the draft proposal presented to both sides. "We will update the public periodically in the next 24 hours," officials said.
"Progress has been made on the overall agreement formula in coordination with mediators and both U.S. administrations—outgoing and incoming. The Middle East has undergone significant changes in recent months, including the weakening of the Shiite axis and Hamas' diminished capabilities. These shifts, along with Trump’s incoming presidency, have created optimal conditions for a deal. The timing is highly sensitive."
The senior official revealed that the U.S. presented a proposal in April, to which Hamas did not respond. On May 5, 2024, Hamas submitted its counterproposal, claiming it did not hold 33 hostages. It took until June 11 for Hamas to respond to an Israeli proposal following President Joe Biden’s speech on May 27. The response included 29 amendments, signaling an unwillingness to finalize a deal.
"At that time, Hamas refused to engage in negotiations," the official said. "The shift began after we eliminated Yahya Sinwar and severely damaged the Shiite axis and Hamas’ broader strategy to ignite the Middle East."
Ynet military analyst Ron Ben-Yishai noted that the Prime Minister’s Office is promoting a narrative that the current deal mirrors an agreement Hamas rejected and derailed between May and July 2024. According to the narrative, Hamas was now forced into acceptance due to military pressure, the disintegration of its resistance alliance, and its lost hope that the Biden administration would compel Israel into a cease-fire.
"The agreement is reasonable," Ben-Yishai said, "but Gal Hirsch, Israel’s hostage coordinator, emphasized that it could not have been achieved earlier."
Gradual withdrawal
Israel will maintain a buffer zone within Gaza during a potential cease-fire as part of the emerging agreement, Israeli officials said. However, the specific depth of the buffer zone within Gaza remains undisclosed.
While Israeli forces will not withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor near the border with Egypt, they will permit displaced Gazans to return to northern Gaza, effectively ceding control of the former Netzarim area.
The return of displaced persons will be conducted under security arrangements and inspections designed to prevent the movement of weapons and armed terrorists into northern Gaza, officials said. "At the end of the deal, the IDF will remain deployed in the buffer zone," a senior Israeli official said, adding that Israel's withdrawal from Gaza would be "gradual, not immediate, to ensure Hamas fulfills its commitments."
Separately, Israel is preparing adjustments to its humanitarian aid policy for Gaza, irrespective of the deal. "We are working on a solution to remove humanitarian aid from Hamas' control," the senior official said. "This is a critical component of Hamas' governance capabilities, and we're engaged in a long-term campaign. Solutions will take time."
U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan expressed cautious optimism on the negotiations. "We believe we are close to finalizing the deal," Sullivan said. "Whether it will close remains to be seen in the coming days and weeks, but I believe we're close. Gaps are narrowing, and issues are being resolved one by one. This is due to several factors: Israel has achieved its objectives in Gaza, and Hamas has suffered catastrophic losses. While nothing is guaranteed, I believe there’s a good chance we’ll reach the finish line."
The Israeli government is expected to approve the deal, despite opposition from the far-right Religious Zionist and Otzma Yehudit parties. Both parties have expressed intent to vote against the agreement but have not issued ultimatums or threatened to leave the coalition.
All Likud ministers and ultra-Orthodox party members are anticipated to support the deal, forming a likely majority of 28 ministers in favor versus six opposing votes from the dissenting parties.
Netanyahu is holding security consultations with defense officials to finalize details of the agreement and determine the timing for presenting it to the government for approval. Cabinet Secretary Yossi Fuchs is engaging with political figures to garner support for the deal. Netanyahu’s aides believe the political hurdles can be surmounted.