The Hezbollah terrorist organization has continued to stress throughout the war that it still holds a strong position. Senior figures in the organization admitted it had been shaken following the pager explosions across the country but claimed it took only a few days to recover. Its leaders were eliminated but new ones will rise. And we must learn from past mistakes.
Even if Hezbollah retreats beyond the Litani River, the final days of fighting have shown that it still possesses weapons and operatives, and not only in southern Lebanon. The IDF’s database of terror targets is far from depleted.
Beirut’s Dahieh district has been significantly targeted in recent days, especially as negotiations for the cease-fire progressed. It suffered these attacks because numerous weapons remain hidden among civilian homes. Meanwhile, in the eastern Beqaa Valley, Hezbollah’s activity continues uninterrupted, with ongoing smuggling attempts.
Recently, border crossings between Syria and Lebanon, previously attacked, were struck again and still remain a threat. At the same time, as the IDF conducts airstrikes, Hezbollah rebuilds.
Hezbollah has faced a severe blow over the last year and internal criticisms of the organization have surfaced. However, it has no intention of disappearing, especially not from Lebanon’s political arena. Nor will it cease its military activities. These will continue covertly in the months following any agreement to avoid drawing attention.
Hezbollah has no intention of disappearing, especially not from Lebanon’s political arena. Nor will it cease its military activities.
Still, we mustn’t delude ourselves: the massive underground tunnels Hezbollah showcased in its recent propaganda videos still exist, with rockets ready for launch. Even now, Hezbollah is rearming and Iran continues to voice its aspirations for "the end of Israel." Iranian officials publicly proclaim our defeat.
One key lesson from the October 7 attack is that appearances can be deceiving. Even if Hezbollah has suffered a significant setback, its ideology remains unchanged and it's already planning its next major attack.
On Tuesday, the organization published photos of operatives injured in the pager operation who have since returned to the field. Shiite families who support Hezbollah will soon return to their villages in southern Lebanon.
Furthermore, the Lebanese Army, which is supposed to oversee the implementation of UN Resolution 1701, is neither capable nor, worse, willing to assert its authority. Nearly half of the Lebanese Army is made up of Shiites who, while not directly linked to Hezbollah, are part of its broader circles and have no interest in disarming the organization. In truth, no Lebanese body is capable of confronting Hezbollah.
Regarding Iran, the prevailing estimation is that it prefers to avoid a broad conflict at this time due to its internal challenges. However, even Hamas had many reasons to avoid launching the October 7 attack, yet it did so.
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Our enemies operate on a logic different from ours and Iran isn’t standing idle. Just as it seemed Hamas had no incentive to jeopardize its economic gains and development in Gaza or to escalate during the Islamic Jihad’s earlier rocket fire against Israel, a similar misconception could take place on other fronts.
The Israeli assumption must be that every capability a terrorist organization possesses will eventually be used against it. It must be neutralized as soon as it comes to light – something the agreement with Lebanon doesn’t allow.