Iranian octopus extends its tentacles to new countries, proxies

Analysis: Iran’s Axis of Resistance weakened after major setbacks, such as Assad’s fall, Hezbollah’s retreat, and Iraq’s resistance to Iranian influence; Yet, Iran continues rebuilding its regional network, while Israel and allies face a shrinking window to act

Lior Ben Ari|
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A year and nearly four months after the outbreak of the war, it can now be declared that the Iranian-Shiite "Axis of Resistance"– which once surrounded Israel with an effective "ring of fire" and caused great devastation – has suffered a significant strategic blow and is no longer what it once was. One by one, Iran’s proxy forces have taken major hits, and Israel has even demonstrated its capability to strike directly within Iranian territory through aerial attacks.
However, the Islamic Republic still possesses cards that cannot be underestimated. From a position of historical weakness, Iran is cautiously attempting to recover and rebuild.
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UAV entering Eilat's airspace
(Video: Amir Torres)
For weeks, there have been no reports of activity from the pro-Iranian militias operating under the name "The Islamic Resistance in Iraq." These militias have fired frequently at Israel during the Gaza war, primarily using drones, and were responsible for the deaths of Staff Sergeant Daniel Aviv Haim Sofer and Private Tal Dror in northern Golan, who were killed by an aircraft that infiltrated from Iraq, although most of the militias' launches originated from Syrian territory, sometimes in coordination with their Houthi allies in Yemen, themselves part of the Iranian-Shiite axis.
However, the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad has dealt a significant blow – at least for now – to the position of Iranian and pro-Iranian forces in Syria. Suddenly, militias that fought alongside Assad and committed atrocities against Syrian civilians found themselves unwelcome in the neighboring country. Two weeks after this historic defeat, and shortly after Hezbollah was also forced to withdraw from the fighting, reports surfaced that the militias would cease firing at Israel. The reason: it became impossible to use Syrian territory for such launches, and in Iraq the militias faced even greater challenges.
Iraq, a country barely functioning on its own, was deeply concerned throughout the war about the regional conflict spilling into its borders. One of Iraq’s main fears was that the militias operating in its territory on behalf of Iran would fire at Israel from Iraq, giving Israel a pretext to directly attack the country and, in effect, open up another front. As a result, Iraq pressured these terror groups not to operate from its soil. Today, discussions in Iraq are focused on integrating the militias into its army as an official force rather than disbanding them, which would deal another blow to the Iranian axis. However, this process is far from simple.
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המתקפה האירנית בתל אביב
המתקפה האירנית בתל אביב
The pan-regional conflict between Iraq and Iran isn't over
(Phoot: Alon Spiegel, AP, Reuters)
“What happened after Israel’s threats to strike the militias is extraordinary in many respects,” says Danny Citrinowicz, a research fellow in the Iran program at INSS and former head of the Iran branch in the IDF Research Division. “The Israeli threats were significant and led to a dramatic retreat by the militias from attacking Israel – despite their intense activity throughout the war. Now, there is tension in Iraq between the desire to take advantage of the momentum to integrate the militias into the army and Iran’s basic interest in strengthening them, especially after its own and Hezbollah's weakening.”
Citrinowicz adds that "developments in Iraq highlight the underlying confrontation between the Iraqi state and Iranian influence. They demonstrate that, despite the Islamic Republic’s apparent control in the region, it still faces enormous challenges in enforcing its will.”
For Iran, losing the militias is not an option. If there is one country more central to Iran’s foreign policy than any other, it is Iraq. “Iran’s fundamental strategy is to ensure that Iraq remains weak, does not threaten Iran, and that Iraqi Shiites do not harm the Iranian state itself,” explains Citrinowicz. “But Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani recognizes Iran’s weakness and is trying to exploit it.”
The desire to distance Iraq from Iran is understandable: Iraqis fear becoming another Lebanon, where Iran’s proxy Hezbollah has brought disaster upon the country. The Iraqi prime minister sees an opportunity to increase his country’s control over the militias and wants to regulate them to prevent a situation where they drag Iraq into war. “But no matter how weak Iran may be, it will not relinquish its grip on Iraq,” stresses Citrinowicz.
The Islamic Republic may also face another political setback in Baghdad. During the war, Iraq’s government, under pressure from the militias, secured an agreement for the withdrawal of the remaining U.S. forces in Iraq by 2026. However, after Assad’s fall, the situation shifted. Before Assad’s defeat, the militias argued that there was no longer a need for U.S. support since ISIS had been defeated. Now, though, fears of ISIS’ resurgence in Iraq are growing, and there is no better ally than the U.S. to counter this threat.
“The changing dynamics in the region necessitate the continued presence of the international coalition,” recently stated Mohammed al-Husseini, a senior figure in Iraq’s Coordination Framework, the political bloc supporting the Iraqi government.
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חמושים ב מיליציה מיליציות פרו-איראניות ליד  המטה שלהם ב בגדד עיראק שהופצץ
חמושים ב מיליציה מיליציות פרו-איראניות ליד  המטה שלהם ב בגדד עיראק שהופצץ
Pro-Iranian militias in Baghdad
(Photo: REUTERS/Ahmed Saad)
Meanwhile, Iran faces another significant threat: the potential political comeback of Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, a fierce opponent of all foreign influence in Iraq. In 2022, al-Sadr failed to form a government, and his supporters stormed the parliament at the time. By the end of that summer, he announced his withdrawal from political life and even instructed the militias loyal to him not to destabilize Iraq.
However, Iran’s weakening could present an opportunity for him to return, buoyed by popular support. Following Assad’s fall, he called on Iraq’s government and militias “not to intervene.” Analysts believe that if al-Sadr succeeds in returning to power, he would work to end both Iranian and American influence in Iraq.
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Beyond Iraq, Iran faces further challenges. Hezbollah in Lebanon suffered a severe blow during the Gaza war and is unlikely to risk additional losses as its leadership is exhausted and Iran is weak. Recent events have shown that Hezbollah remains active, but Assad’s fall has disrupted its primary weapons smuggling route from Iran. Politically, Hezbollah is also in a fragile position in Lebanon and fears losing its support base, especially after recent setbacks. This is why senior members of the organization continue to claim that the war they dragged Lebanon into was necessary.
Meanwhile, the Houthis in Yemen continue to threaten Israel-linked shipping and demand a complete cease-fire in Gaza. Throughout the war, they launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel, pausing these attacks during the first phase of the ceasefire agreement but warning that they continue to arm themselves. The threat from Yemen has not disappeared and will likely preoccupy Israel in the near future, as the Houthis remain capable of launching strikes if Israel takes actions they oppose.
“What did they learn from this war? They learned that it only strengthens them in the eyes of the Axis of Resistance and the region,” says Citrinowicz. “There’s only one move that can be made against them, and that is to bring down this regime. Allowing a terror organization with strategic capabilities to threaten Israel or its economy is unacceptable. Occasional airstrikes won’t change the situation dramatically. The U.S. administration must be enlisted for this mission.”
Despite the blows it has suffered, Iran has not given up on the Axis of Resistance. According to Citrinowicz, it will continue to build and expand this axis, potentially through additional countries. For example, Iran may seek to strengthen its presence in the Arabian Peninsula, the Horn of Africa, or even Libya. Its ties with Sudan have also recently grown stronger. The Horn of Africa region, including countries like Djibouti, Somalia, Eritrea, and Ethiopia, holds strategic importance for Iran. This region, located near Yemen and along the Red Sea, plays a critical role in pressuring Israel and supporting Hamas in Gaza.
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Israeli=linked British vessel boarded by Houthis
Israeli=linked British vessel boarded by Houthis
Israeli-linked British vessel boarded by Houthis
(Photo: Scheepvaartwest)
“The new generation of the Axis of Resistance might even include cells in the West Bank and Jordan, where Iran is increasing efforts to open new fronts against Israel," Citrinowicz concludes. "These developments are widespread. It’s not enough to say Syria has collapsed and Hezbollah cannot recover. Iran’s attempts to build the Axis of Resistance have not stopped and will not stop. There is currently a window of opportunity while Iran is weak and that must be seized.”
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