The new phase of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict finds Iran at a diplomatically inconvenient moment. The Iranian government is currently focused on a diplomatic offensive, led by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, aimed at advancing a potential political resolution with the United States on the country’s nuclear issue.
This week, Pezeshkian was at the UN General Assembly in New York with his advisors, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghch, who was part of the nuclear negotiation team that led to the historic 2015 agreement with the U.S.
It’s still too early to assess whether Iran's leadership, headed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, is genuinely seeking a resolution on the nuclear issue, or if its goal is merely to buy time until October 2025, when the clause allowing European countries to remain in the nuclear deal to renew sanctions on Iran without veto power in the UN Security Council expires. Either way, the last thing Iran wants amid its current diplomatic campaign is to be dragged into a direct military confrontation with Israel, let alone the United States.
Iran’s constraints and considerations haven’t changed significantly in recent months. From the onset of the war in Gaza, Iran has sought a cease-fire that would preserve Hamas’s governing capabilities in Gaza and maintain much of Hezbollah's military strength. As the war dragged on, Iran aimed to wear Israel down in a prolonged and multi-front war without paying too heavy a price for it.
In response to the serious escalation in Lebanon over the past weeks, Iran has harshly condemned Israel's actions and demanded that the international community work to stop the widespread IDF strikes against Hezbollah targets.
Iran's president told CNN that Lebanon must not be allowed to become "another Gaza" at Israel's hands and that Hezbollah can’t stand alone against a state like Israel, which has advanced weaponry and U.S. backing.
Araghch, speaking to reporters in New York, stressed that Iran would not remain indifferent in the face of Israeli attacks and would support Lebanon. He also denied reports attributing statements to Iran's president regarding Tehran’s willingness to ease tensions with Israel.
It’s clear at this stage that Iran was refraining from committing to direct military involvement in the conflict alongside Hezbollah. Senior Iranian officials have even warned in recent days about falling into a trap that Israel is setting for Iran.
Evasive measures
Pezeshkian accused Israel of seeking a broad war in the Middle East and attempting to create a situation that would drag his country into a full-scale confrontation. The foreign minister said that Iran is fully aware that Israel is trying to escape the deadlock it faces in Gaza by drawing Iran and the United States into the conflict and that Tehran has no intention of falling into this trap.
Moreover, from Iran's perspective, there’s currently no real reason to directly intervene in the fighting. Unlike the optimistic Israeli assessments heard in recent days following a series of successes against Hezbollah, Iran still hopes the pro-Iranian axis led by the terror group can cause significant damage to Israel using the substantial capabilities that remain at its disposal.
While the blows dealt to Hezbollah have certainly caused surprise and concern in Tehran, the Iranian leadership still believes that Israel doesn’t have the means to decisively defeat the organization despite the degradation of Hezbollah's capabilities by the IDF.
Biden, last month
(WDSU News)
Thus, Israel is expected to be drawn into a prolonged war of attrition against Hezbollah, particularly if it decides to launch a ground operation in Lebanon. Such a war would wear down Israel both militarily and on the home front, preventing it from achieving its goals — both in Gaza and on the northern front — chief among them defeating Hamas, returning the hostages returning northern residents to their homes.
In this context, Iran may be content to increase pressure on Israel more extensively at this stage using Shiite militias from Iraq, Syria and Yemen, but without its direct involvement. Severe and prolonged damage to Hezbollah's strategic capabilities could change Iran's assessment of its ability to maintain Hezbollah as a primary strategic arm for deterring Israel and responding in case of an attack on its nuclear facilities.
Dr. Raz ZimmtSuch a scenario might compel Iran to intervene directly to save its Hezbollah project which it nurtured for decades. However, it’s likely that a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, which would also include damage to national infrastructure in Lebanon (and probably in Israel as well, would increase internal and international pressure, forcing a cease-fire on the parties before Iran would need to intervene directly.
- Dr. Raz Zimmt is a senior researcher and Iran expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and the Alliance Center for Iranian Studies (ACIS) at Tel Aviv University.