On Monday morning, Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, took to the podium to commemorate the 35th anniversary of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's death. His speech unfolded a grand geopolitical strategy against Israel, starting with Hamas' "Al-Aqsa Flood" attack, weaving through the events that have transpired and continue to unfold. We hear these declarations but fail to truly listen. It's a deeply ingrained tradition, an overarching conception that might stem from contempt or arrogance. Despite the clarity with which Israel's adversaries articulate their intentions – and act on them – we stubbornly cling to this flawed perception.
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A prolonged war in Gaza is exactly what Khamenei wants
(Photo: PA/IRANIAN LEADER'S OFFICE HANDOUT)
During the Oslo years of the 90s, Palestinian leaders were explicit about their objectives. We turned a deaf ear to Arafat's Johannesburg speech, likening the Oslo Agreement to the Treaty of al-Hudaybiya agreement – a deceptive truce. We dismissed countless similar declarations. We overlooked Yahya Sinwar's 2018 proclamation that Hamas terrorists would "rip the hearts of Israelis out of their bodies." The UN Human Rights Council wrote it off as mere fearmongering, a misguided belief shared by our intelligence as well as the political echelon.
For years, I've sparred with left-wingers, including Zionists and ardent supporters of Israel. They argue that a bit more flexibility would usher in peace. I wish that were true. One authority among them claimed that the Palestinians had relinquished the right of return. I questioned the validity of this concession, and I'm still waiting for a satisfactory answer. This belief stubbornly persists .
It's high time we truly listen. "Al-Aqsa Flood," Khamenei asserted yesterday, "came at the right moment to halt the regional power shift." The objective remains to derail normalization with Israel, sabotage relations with regional players from Morocco to the UAE, and invigorate the "resistance axis" spanning Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. These goals have already borne fruit. Normalization is receding. Eilat’s port faces a naval blockade due to missiles from Yemen and Iraq. As Khamenei spoke, another siren howled in Eilat, signaling more missiles emanating from the east, namely Iraq.
Hamas’ devastation of Gaza is seen as a triumph by Khamenei. This destruction fuels the fires of hatred against Israel. Ruined buildings and exaggerated casualty figures serve the strategic aims of the "resistance axis" led by Khamenei. Israel stands isolated. The much-anticipated mega-deal between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia is slipping away, as is normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Israel is at its lowest diplomatic ebb. The Palestinian issue has surged back to the forefront of global discourse – not as a step toward peace, but as a challenge to Israel's very existence. The Palestinian flag and keffiyeh have become potent symbols worldwide. This was the aim, and it has been realized.
Hamas was merely the appetizer. The remnants will continue to plague Israel, whether this conflict drags on for seven months or seven years. This perpetual harassment is precisely what Khamenei desires, pushing Israel from its current low to the brink of the abyss. And Israel’s leadership, deemed by many as particularly incompetent, is playing right into Khamenei’s hands – more entanglement, more boycotts. Khamenei’s grand strategy is to turn Israel into a global outcast, countering the U.S. mega-deal which aims to bolster Israel. If you need any validation to the claim that Khamenei is ahead on the score board, consider this: France has barred Israel from a major arms exhibition, marking another victory for Hamas, Khamenei and BDS. The damages are mounting, and Netanyahu is still obsessing over "total victory."
There’s only one path to thwart this axis of evil: Bolster and expand normalization. More dead Hamas terrorists – five or 500 – won’t shift the strategic landscape, particularly when they obstruct a regional alliance against Iran, facilitated by a U.S.-Saudi defense agreement and Israel-Saudi normalization. Khamenei’s recent words underscore his intent to thwart this alliance, isolate Israel, and fortify the resistance axis bombarding Israel from every direction. He meant every word.
The only viable path forward for Israel is one that diverges from Bibi's "total victory" narrative, namely embracing Biden’s plan, perhaps Netanyahu’s too, leading to the release of hostages and regional transformation. It won’t be a total victory, as one simply does not exist, but it might be the only way to save Israel from utter defeat.