Israeli security officials estimate that Hezbollah is preparing to respond in the coming days to the assassination of Fuad Shukr, the most senior military commander in the Shiite terrorist organization, according to a Saturday report.
The response is reportedly coordinated with Iran, which, for now, does not plan to retaliate from its own territory, despite the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
This assessment comes as U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown made an unexpected visit to the region, starting in Jordan and expected to continue to Egypt and Israel. Recently, Israel has sent strong messages to Hezbollah, warning that any attack on Tel Aviv will result in a retaliatory strike on Beirut, according to senior Israeli officials.
The prevailing belief in Israel is that both Iran and Hezbollah still intend to respond. "The Iranians suffered a significant blow, the kind they can't afford because it damages their deterrence, reveals their vulnerability and showcases Israeli strength," the officials said.
They added that the anticipated response is not necessarily linked to ongoing negotiations for a hostage deal. "They don't really care about the Palestinians; they might use it as an excuse later. We are taking it seriously and believe it's still on the table. Israel has no interest in further escalation; we've done our part, and from now on, we prefer to avoid further escalation," they noted.
However, they clarified that Israel is prepared for any scenario, and in the event of an attack, "the response will be significant." In Jerusalem, it is believed that Hezbollah will not act without Iran's approval. "Hezbollah will only act with a green light from Iran. If Iran says 'wait,' they wait. We know that Khamenei's order was also communicated to Hezbollah. Although the Iranians are preparing for a response, it hasn't been carried out yet. The Iranians have made it clear that it is unrelated to the hostage deal negotiations."
Meanwhile, IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari addressed the tension, saying, "We are heading into a significant week with the negotiations in Cairo, the fighting in Gaza, and on the northern border. Our readiness is very high, both offensively and defensively, and we will continue to remove threats and fight our enemies. The public should remain vigilant, as you have done so far. We will provide immediate updates on any developments."
Regarding the fighting in the north, after a day of clashes that saw dozens of rockets launched from Lebanon, Hagari said, "IDF forces continue to operate with determination and strength against Hezbollah. In recent days, we have struck about 70 terrorist targets, including numerous weapons depots aimed at Israel, and eliminated over 20 terrorists, including senior operatives in Hezbollah's rocket array.
"It is important to explain our operational approach. We are systematically attacking Hezbollah's capabilities and fighters. On defense, we are focused on removing threats and closing in on terrorists who have carried out attacks or emerged from known locations, including senior commanders. We are targeting bases and terrorist sites while Hezbollah attacks and the civilian population. We have a wide range of offensive action plans, and we will act according to the decisions of the political echelon," Hagari added. He addressed the residents of northern Israel, saying, "I know you have endured ten very difficult months under a reality of rocket fire and fires. We will not rest until you can return to your homes safely."
The latest assessment regarding a potential Hezbollah attack comes as the U.S. and mediators from Qatar and Egypt continue efforts to reach a hostage deal and a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Another summit is expected in Cairo tomorrow, with an Israeli delegation led by Mossad Chief Dedi Barnea, CIA Director Bill Burns, and senior Qatari and Egyptian officials. Hamas has also sent a delegation to Cairo, but it remains unclear whether its representatives will participate in the talks. Various sources warn that significant disagreements remain, making it difficult to reach an agreement.
Meanwhile, Iran continues to threaten retaliation, with Iranian media airing a video in which Revolutionary Guards Commander Hossein Salami says, in response to a question about retaliating for Haniyeh's assassination, "You will hear good news soon."