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A chilling note accompanied an Iftar meal in Idlib this week: "Every Alawite has the right to live in peace… in a grave." This message, circulated amid one of Syria’s bloodiest weeks in recent memory, underscores the brutality of an ongoing massacre targeting the country’s Alawite minority. The violence erupted after Alawite militants loyal to the deposed Assad regime launched attacks against forces of the new Syrian government, led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, in key coastal cities including Baniyas, Latakia, and Jableh.
Since the fall of Bashar Assad’s rule three months ago, Syria’s Alawite community—long the country’s ruling minority—has faced widespread persecution and retribution. In response to the attacks, thousands of jihadist fighters descended on Alawite strongholds, executing over 1,300 civilians in a campaign reminiscent of the atrocities committed by Hamas on October 7. Disturbing footage circulated online shows civilians forced to crawl on all fours and bark like dogs before being executed. Tens of thousands of Alawites have fled their homes, many seeking refuge in Russian military bases along the coast, while their abandoned properties have been looted.
One widely shared video captures a jihadist boasting: "Baniyas used to be half Alawite and half Sunni. Now, it’s half Sunni and half 'Quran reciters'—meaning we wiped them off the face of the earth." Another clip shows a militant commanding his fighters: "Leave no pig alive, young or old. Throw them into the sea—let them be safe among the fish."
A campaign of ethnic cleansing
For many, the bloodshed is more than a violent episode—it’s an orchestrated campaign of ethnic cleansing. "What’s happening in the Alawite region is genocide, akin to the Holocaust," said A., a Syrian Alawite intellectual. "The Sunni world views Alawites as an alien element aligned with the West. To jihadists, we are infidels who must be eradicated." He argued that the new government sees the entire Alawite community as an extension of Assad’s regime and Iran, despite internal divisions and widespread opposition among Alawites to Assad’s pro-Iran policies.
In a sign of growing desperation, Sheikh Salim Narli, a senior Alawite leader in Turkey, reportedly reached out to Israel’s embassy in Ankara via a third party, seeking assistance.
The shattered illusion of a 'moderate' Islamist rule
The crisis is the first major test for al-Sharaa since he seized power. Initially welcomed by the Arab world, Western capitals, and even some in Israel, he projected a polished image—donning suits, engaging with global leaders, and signaling a softer approach to governance. However, this past week has raised critical questions about whether al-Sharaa is truly a "moderate Islamist" who has adapted to governance or if this is another case of misplaced Western optimism, similar to how some in Israel viewed Hamas before October 7. It also raises doubts about whether Syria, a country with no democratic history and deep-seated sectarian divisions, can ever transition into a stable nation-state.
"The old Syrian regime is gone, but the new one has yet to build a functioning state," says Syrian journalist Ammar Dioub. "Right now, Syria isn’t a country—it’s a collection of militias with no real social cohesion. Without fundamental reforms, the nation risks sliding back into civil war."
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A political cartoon showing al-Shaara washing his bloody hands with water from a cup with the symbol of Qatar-based news agency Al-Jazeera
(Illustration: Adnan al-Mahakri)
In a particularly grim twist, jihadist forces this week were seen dropping barrel bombs on civilian areas—replicating a tactic once employed against them by the Assad regime and its Russian allies.
Al-Sharaa’s response: Damage control and political maneuvering
Facing mounting scrutiny, al-Sharaa announced a state investigation into "those who exceeded their authority and spilled innocent blood." He also sought to reassure Syria’s remaining Alawites, promising to crack down on "subversive elements" and maintain national unity. However, his strongest condemnation was directed at Iran and Hezbollah—Assad’s former allies—whom Sunni rebels view as existential threats.
To bolster his position, al-Sharaa struck a historic deal with Syria’s Kurdish factions, integrating them into national governance structures, including security forces. This agreement, reportedly brokered by U.S. CENTCOM Commander Gen. Michael Kurilla, marks a strategic shift, aligning the Kurds with the new regime while also placating Turkey, which has sought to neutralize Kurdish insurgents.
Yet, not everyone is convinced. Kurdish political activist Dr. Akram Naasan remains skeptical: "The massacres against Alawites carry clear ideological and religious markers of genocide. I’m also disheartened by the silence of Arab intellectuals, which reflects a broader acceptance of sectarian violence."
Regional implications: Israel, Iran, and the Kurdish question
The developments in Syria hold critical lessons for Israel. Much like past illusions about Hamas moderating over time, some in Israel had hoped Syria was moving toward stability. Instead, the region has once again demonstrated that sectarian hatred and historical grievances often outweigh aspirations for democracy.
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Israel’s approach currently hinges on three pillars—maintaining a buffer zone in the Golan Heights, protecting Syria’s Druze population, and targeting hostile actors such as Hamas within Syrian territory. Each of these policies is crucial but requires continuous reassessment to avoid being drawn too deeply into Syria’s internal chaos.
While Assad’s downfall weakened Tehran’s influence in Syria, the latest violence presents an opportunity for Iran and Hezbollah to reassert themselves by co-opting Alawite factions. "Iran and Hezbollah are behind this crisis," argues Saudi journalist Tariq al-Hamid. "Their goal is to create an 'Alawite Hezbollah' along the coast, turning it into another Iranian proxy akin to the militias in Iraq and Yemen."
Uncertain future: A nation on the brink
In recent days, the massacres have slowed, pro-government demonstrations have taken place in Damascus, and al-Sharaa has received an invitation for his first official visit to Brussels. However, these gestures appear to be mere bandages on a festering wound.
Michael MilshteinMichael Milshtein
Syria remains a fractured and volatile state—one that presents more threats than opportunities for Israel. As regional powers vie for influence and sectarian violence rages on, Israel will need to navigate this crisis with a mix of caution and strategic assertiveness, avoiding entanglement in Syria’s ever-deepening quagmire.
Dr. Michael Milshtein is the head of the Forum for Palestinian Studies at the Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University.