IDF strikes South Lebanon
In the past two weeks, Israel has increasingly upped the ante. At first there were covert operations attributed to Israel, including the synchronized detonation of Hezbollah's communication devices, then the targeted killing by Israel, of Ibrahim Aqil, Hezbollah's commander of the Radwan force and after that, came massive well-targeted attacks across Lebanon that culminated in the bombing of Hezbollah's command center in the bunker in the Dahieh quarter, killing Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah and other senior members of the terror group.
The interesting question is, will the military launch a ground incursion into Lebanon as senior IDF commanders demand, to ensure the safe return of residents to their homes in the north? Another question is whether given the military's impressive achievements thus far, were Hezbollah's capabilities overestimated and how is it that the terror group which has been taking a beating daily, refrained from launching more than dozens of its rockets into population centers.
On the one hand, there is no doubt that the attacks carried out by the military, have eroded Hezbollah's capabilities. Its command structure has been dismantled and many of its missile and rocket stores and launchers have been destroyed. On the other hand, everyone agrees there is no room for complacency and Hezbollah still maintains many capabilities and if it can regroup quickly, it could decide to attack and would be able to cause considerable damage.
The IDF believes targeted killing of leaders and aerial campaigns go only so far and there must be an offensive on the ground to remove terror infrastructure and ensure the safety of northern Israel.
As for Hezbollah, senior members of the terror group most probably trust no one. They cannot know who keeps a watchful eye on them, whether via technological means, with spies, or both, and that dramatically limits their ability to function.
Israeli security officials believe Hezbollah can attack but must decide to do so. They have an arsenal at their disposal and Radwan units are positioned near the border with Israel. For the moment, Hezbollah has opted to limit its fight with Israel.
For its part, the IDF is working on preventing Hezbollah from regrouping and is targeting mid-level operatives who can activate the missile systems when ordered. On Sunday the military said it killed the missile force commander and destroyed most of the missile arsenal in its strikes on Lebanon. Those kids of commanders are not easily replaced and the knowledge that is lost when they are killed is critical for the war effort.
The IDF's achievements are the result of years of preparation and investments. There is no euphoria in the military intelligence, but there is a sense of satisfaction.
Nasrallah who pushed the narrative that he was the defender of Iran and its front guard, began the war in support of Hamas in Gaza, and that cost him his life. He may also have dragged the Iranians into the war, turning Hezbollah from an asset to a liability for its masters in Tehran.
As a jihadi movement, Hezbollah will not disappear from Lebanon, but it may no longer be an existential threat to Israel.