Iran will reportedly supply drones and air defense missiles, establish bases and share intelligence as part of a $500 million deal. The deal's details were reported by the Islamic Republic's opposition television channel Iran International. Armenia denies these claims.
The deal concerns Iran's neighbor and Israel's ally, Azerbaijan, which is facing a tense situation with Armenia after concluding a war between the two just a few months ago. Now it fears that Armenia will receive the same Iranian drones that Russia is using against Ukraine.
According to a senior military official in the Middle East, the reported agreement was divided into several contracts and signed in recent months. Iran International reported that it obtained an exclusive list of the military items that Iran is supposed to supply to Armenia, which includes several models of drones and air defense missile systems.
Azerbaijan, which buys a large amount of weapons from Israel, has fought two major wars with Armenia since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. Azerbaijan regained control of large areas in 2020 after the previous round of fighting. In this year, after decades of skirmishes, Azerbaijan launched a 44-day military operation known as the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. Military analysts concluded that Azerbaijan was able to emerge victorious by breaking the Armenian defenses with drones purchased from Turkey and Israel. Baku's victory forced hundreds of thousands of Armenians to leave the enclave for Armenia.
Armenians escaping to Armenia
The Armenian Finance Ministry reported that defense spending in 2024 increased by 81% compared to 2020. Armenia's defense budget in 2024 was about $1.4 billion, so the amount allocated to Iran through this deal would be about one third of the budget. It is unknown how Armenia can afford it, but some analysts estimate it is possible through loans.
Meanwhile, from 2016 to 2020, Israel was responsible for 69% of Azerbaijan's arms imports, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The Defense Ministry of Armenia rejected the report of an arms deal with Iran, saying that these are fictitious reports, undeserving of a response.