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A new RAND Corporation report published Thursday paints a bleak picture of Gaza’s reconstruction, estimating that 90% of the enclave’s 2.2 million residents have been displaced during the war and that 70% of homes have been damaged or destroyed. The report states that 42 million tons of rubble must be cleared.
The American research institute, which advises governments and international bodies on public policy, noted that post-war reconstruction has historically been slower than expected. Researchers predicted rebuilding Gaza could take decades and cost more than $50 billion.
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Sick Palestinians leaving Gaza via Israeli border crossing
“Hundreds of thousands of Gazans will need interim shelter for a decade or longer while homes are being rebuilt,” the report read. It also warned that “at the pace of Gaza’s housing reconstruction after the 2014 and 2021 military incursions, it would take 80 years to rebuild 79,000 completely destroyed homes in Gaza.”
According to the report, 5% of Gaza’s population (115,000 people) had already left the enclave by mid-2024, with studies indicating that most refugees in such circumstances do not return within a decade.
The exodus continued Thursday, as another group of wounded and sick individuals left via the Kerem Shalom border crossing for treatment in the UAE. On Wednesday, reports indicated that around 200 people were set to leave the Strip.
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The RAND researchers outlined various reconstruction strategies, including urban planning that integrates refugee camps. They noted that “Camps are a typical solution to civilian displacement in war. However, temporary displacement camps often become permanent, providing poor quality of life and environments supportive of radicalization, as illustrated by camps built in Gaza in 1948.”
Some of their findings align with Egypt’s reconstruction plan for Gaza, which the Arab League has endorsed — but which has yet to receive backing from Israel or the U.S.
Meanwhile, Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar reported Thursday that the UAE is mediating between the U.S. and Egypt in an effort to persuade Cairo to accept U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan for the relocation of Gazans in exchange for financial aid — echoing similar claims from other Arab outlets in recent weeks.
According to the report, the plan would include a political agreement meeting Egypt’s minimum demands regarding the presence of Hamas in Gaza and ensuring the enclave is not depopulated.
Al-Akhbar further claimed that Egypt fears the forced displacement of Palestinians into its territory due to potential security implications. Meanwhile, the UAE has reportedly proposed resettling all terrorist operatives in a third country — excluding Egypt — in coordination with Israel.
These individuals would not be allowed to return, while their families could remain in Gaza if they wished. The report also said that Israel and the UAE have held recent talks on Gaza’s future, with Abu Dhabi’s investment vision for the enclave receiving Israeli support.