The Iranian regime is unlikely to last another full year, according to at least one Middle Eastern analyst.
Hazem Alghabra, a former senior advisor in the U.S. Department of State, told ILTV News last week that, following the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria, the Iranian people might soon be ready to rise against their own government.
“If anybody has a reason to rise against their government, it is the Iranian people,” Alghabra said, adding that no one would “try to force” the people into an uprising, but “it will happen.”
Alghabra made these remarks on Insider, ILTV News’s weekly news analysis program, during a discussion with British-Israeli author and analyst Jonathan Spyer.
Spyer expressed concern that the Iranian regime may accelerate its nuclear weapons program as a way to regain strength following recent setbacks, including the Israeli assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and much of the terror organization’s key leadership, as well as a retaliatory strike against Iran that left its airspace exposed.
“In the last days, there are indications of the Iranians accelerating their existing nuclear program,” Spyer said. “That doesn't mean they've made the decision to break out for weapon force,” he added, but noted the logic that, if the proxy strategy was less effective now, then a nuclear weapon could be another way to prove strength.
“I certainly hope that our intelligence services – American and Israeli – are watching carefully for that,” Spyer said. “And if a decision is made to break out [a nuclear weapon], that we will have enough time to take the necessary action, which would lead, of course, to military action in order to frustrate that ambition. Under no circumstances should that regime be allowed to reach nuclear capacity.”
Spyer said he does not believe Iran will take any immediate direct action against Israel or other nations to prove its strength following the collapse of the Syrian regime. However, he warned that despite its recent blows, Iran remains a regional threat with active proxies in Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon.
Meanwhile, Israel has been conducting repeated strikes across Syria, including in As-Suwayda, Damascus, Al-Qalamoun, Masyaf, Latakia, and Tartus. These operations have targeted and destroyed chemical and ballistic weapons depots, radar stations, warehouses, and scientific research centers. Israel stated that these strikes are aimed at preventing sensitive weapons from reaching groups it considers threats and protecting its borders.
Alghabra explained that many of Israel’s strikes were planned well before the fall of the Assad regime.
“This is not a direct reaction to the takeover of Damascus and the collapse of the Syrian regime,” he said. “The collapse may have expedited the operation, but this has been planned due to Syria’s involvement in October 7 and, technically, October 8.”
However, he acknowledged that “the timing is interesting and dangerous” and urged Israel to engage more actively with Syrian rebels to signal its desire for peace.
“The Syrian people want stability and modernity,” Alghabra said. “Syria needs to join the 21st century. And here lies the opportunity for working with the Syrian people.”
He emphasized that both the Syrian government and its people will need international technical support and aid. According to Alghabra, the U.S., Israel, and other nations could provide this aid in exchange for meeting specific expectations that could lead to normalization.
“There shouldn't be any problem for Israel to commence that kind of humanitarian effort, and I would certainly want to see that,” Spyer said.