Israel has proved that it is willing to concede many war-related decisions to American demands, even if they go directly against its national security interests.
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Biden, Netanyahu, and Sinwar escaping
(Photo: Haim Goldberg /Flash90, IDF Spokesperson's Unit, REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein)
Among those, heeding to the request by the U.S. not to pursue a full scale invasion of Rafah and delaying operations for over 3 months, agreeing not escalate the war in the northern front against Hezbollah including retaliation against its patron’s attacks, and most importantly, agreeing in principle to a “hostage deal” that would erase many of its military achievements and leverage over Hamas.
One thing Israel is not willing to compromise about, however, is its war objective of defeating Hamas and preventing it from maintaining its military and governmental roles after the war is over. The main aim is to prevent the cycle of indoctrination of the young generations.
If the Palestinian Authority would be the ruling authority in Gaza after Hamas, the education for the same value would remain- glorification of terrorism, martyrdom and dedication of one’s life to the destruction of Israel and the murder of Jews. Not to mention, the PA is hardly capable of effectively governing its own official territory in Judea and Samaria, let alone the Gaza Strip, with historically-low approval rating and domestic legitimization.
Biden’s speech calling Israel to agree to the ceasefire deal that it has already agreed to, a strange occurrence in of itself, and on Shabbat eve, was designated to pressure Israel and not just Hamas. After all, if Israel agreed to the deal, why would Biden make a public speech about it, calling Israel to accept it?
Biden called Israelis to pressure their own government against the extremists in it (referring to Smotrich and Ben-Gvir), and accept the deal to end the war. For the first time, the President implicitly agreed to the aftermath of the war in which Hamas survives by claiming that at this point "Hamas no longer is capable of carrying out another October 7".
This is a textbook example of gaslighting, instead of backing Israel’s objectives to dismantle Hamas and make sure that it cannot be the government in Gaza, for the stability of the entire region, Biden decided to claim that since Hamas has been weakened, Israel’s war objectives have been achieved and it can end the war.
Even if that were true and Hamas has been weakened to the point that it cannot carry out a mass slaughter of Israelis, implicitly Israel is expected to accept Hamas still surviving and maybe carrying out only “small” massacres or firing rockets at population centers, and build up its force to future large-scale massacres.
By calling to end the war as the war takes its toll on Israel "draining the economic, military, and human resources, and furthering Israel’s isolation in the world," Biden is signaling to the Jihadists that their strategy works. Whoever is more patient and resilient wins because the other side would not be willing to pay the price of a prolonged war.
Biden chose to characterize Israel military campaign, which is long and tenuous indeed, as an "Indefinite war in pursuit of an unidentified notion of 'total victory'". This characterization only takes away any leverage that Israel and the West have over the forces of Islamism, it shows that the longing for peace and quiet is so prevalent in the West that it is willing to buy temporary quite in order to avoid a larger confrontation.
This only incentivizes Hamas to continue fighting as Biden signals his desperation to reach a deal at all costs. The first rule of negotiations is to never show how much you are willing to pay for something because you end up paying your maximum price.
Agreeing to Biden’s proposal to end the war, while Hamas still survives would not be a humiliating defeat for Israel which would reverberate in the region and encourage further hostility towards it, it would lay the playbook for future hostile actors in the region.
Hamas could claim that it is the paragon example of resistance despite all odds, it survived and defeated Israel in a way that no Arab army before it had done and managed to do so despite Israel’s support from the West and the world’s strongest superpower, the U.S.
Atar Porat Moreover, Sinwar and his acolytes could claim (with logical consistency) that resistance is the only way to "liberate Palestine," thereby pushing away moderate states that engage with Israel and consider normalizing ties with Israel, notably Saudi Arabia. This would only reinvigorate jihadist forces in other Arab countries in the region, creating a social unrest that could threaten to topple Arab governments.
This would only sew more chaos, instability and war in the region and reverse the positive trend started since the implementation of the Abraham Accords. This would be a defeat for Israel, the West and the moderate Arab world and would only strengthen radicals who want to bring the region back to middle ages.
- Atar Porat is an independent author at the Israel Defense and Security Forum's (IDSF) Research Department