For ardent enthusiasts of Nobel Prize announcements, this week is a thrilling time, particularly with the buzz surrounding Friday's revelation in Oslo of the Nobel Peace Prize laureate. This announcement holds special significance, coinciding with the anniversary of October 7.
This year, speculation swirls around several high-profile nominees, some of which will most definitively raise some Israeli eyebrows. Among these are the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), which Israel criticizes and accuses of complicity in the October 7 violence; the International Criminal Court, which is pursuing cases against Israel; and UN Secretary-General António Guterres, recently declared unwelcome by Israel for not strongly condemning Iran's attack and for saying that October 7 "did not happen in a vacuum."
The Nobel Peace Prize committee, known for its unpredictability, might surprise us yet again this year. Historically, the prize has been withheld 19 times, the last time in 1972. Dan Smith, a peace researcher from Stockholm, suggests that perhaps this year the committee might opt not to award the prize to anyone, highlighting the global climate of conflict.
With 286 candidates vying for recognition, this year's roster includes prominent figures including Pope Francis and David Attenborough. Speculation also surrounds figures like the late Alexei Navalny and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, though geopolitical complexities make their wins unlikely.
Julian Assange, Elon Musk, and former U.S. President Donald Trump are also reportedly in the mix, with the latter recognized for his role in the Abraham Accords.
Experts suggest that, given the tumultuous events of 2024 – from the Middle East's ongoing conflicts to the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and the humanitarian crisis in Sudan – the prize might go to humanitarian activists aiding those in war-torn regions.
UNRWA emerges as a potential candidate for its efforts to assist Palestinians amid the Gaza conflict, although such a choice could be contentious due to allegations of involvement in violence. Meanwhile, the committee might also focus on reinforcing the post-WWII global order, hinting at potential recognition for Guterres or the International Criminal Court.
Other nominees reportedly include organizations like EcoPeace and Women Wage Peace, lauded for promoting Israeli-Palestinian peace. Palestinian and Israeli groups documenting human rights issues also feature among the contenders.
Despite the possibility of no award being given, as noted by Dan Smith due to rising military investments worldwide, others argue that the prize remains crucial for advocating peace.
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IDF troops scouring an UNRWA facility containing munitions
(Photo: IDF Spokesperson's Unit)
Nobel announcements begin on Monday with the prize for medicine, followed by physics, chemistry, and literature throughout the week, culminating with the prize for economics next Monday. The Peace Prize, unique in its Oslo announcement, remains the highlight for many Nobel enthusiasts.