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Iran and its proxies have taken serious blows, but “their weakness is a perishable asset,” according to British-Israeli analyst and writer Jonathan Spyer.
In an interview on the ILTV News Podcast, Spyer said Israel has not managed to eliminate any of the threats surrounding it—Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, or Iran itself.
“Every day that passes, they’re going to be getting stronger,” he warned.
Spyer explained that Israel’s current military strategy is not unlike previous approaches, often referred to as “mowing the lawn.” The idea is to weaken the enemy, watch it regain strength, and then strike again. However, he believes there is growing recognition that this cycle cannot continue. Israel, he said, may soon need to strike at the source—Iran—to put an end to regional terrorism.
“Israel is leaning toward decisive action to try to bring down the regime in the Islamic Republic of Iran, in the belief that, and I think it's an accurate belief that, at the end of the day, it is Iranian strength and Iranian assistance which enables these other fronts to maintain themselves,” Spyer said.
He added that Israel sees a “window of opportunity” for a decisive strike on Iran’s nuclear capabilities in the coming year. If Israel does not act, that window could close as Iran strengthens its defenses, likely with advanced air defense systems from Russia. Meanwhile, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and other Iranian-backed forces will have time to replenish and fortify.
“There’s a moment now where, if Israel is bold, it can try to fundamentally change the equation,” he said.
Watch these previous ILTV News Podcasts:
The Hamas War: A Shifting Strategy
Spyer noted that Israel entered the war in Gaza with two clear goals: to return the hostages and to destroy Hamas militarily and politically. However, he argued that Israel has not pursued both objectives with the same intensity.
“Israel has been trying to fight Hamas militarily, but it has not, in fact, been trying to replace Hamas politically,” he said. “And the reason for that, I think, is because none of the potential goals, which are the ones I outlined earlier, are really acceptable to various parts of either Israel itself or its allies.”
As a result, Israel has opted for a wait-and-see approach.
“The response of the government of Israel has been to kind of kick the can down the road,” Spyer added.
He acknowledged that Israel has demonstrated impressive military capabilities, such as the recent “beeper attack” against Hezbollah. However, its inability to establish an alternative to Hamas in Gaza presents a major challenge.
Spyer also pointed to a fundamental intelligence failure regarding Hamas before October 7. While Israel had prepared for threats from Hezbollah and other enemies, it severely underestimated Hamas’s capabilities.
“Israel was blind, willfully blind, prior to October 7 as a result of a massive intelligence failure on the strategic level,” he said, "which then, of course, leads down, as such things do, to additional failures and weaknesses on the tactical level.”
A Crossroads in the War
Now, Israel faces a critical decision. Negotiations are underway for a second phase of the hostage-for-ceasefire deal, which U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff has said could go through. However, the deal would require Israel to withdraw further from Gaza—while Hamas remains in control.
Spyer is skeptical about the deal’s prospects, saying there is a “very large question mark” over whether it will progress as Witkoff expects.
“Throughout the war, the government of Israel has had two contradictory aims, one of which is to ensure the release of all the hostages, and the second is the destruction of the Hamas authority, of Hamas political and military power in Gaza,” Spyer explained. “These two goals are, of course, contradictory, because it's not, in fact, possible to negotiate with anybody and at the same time seek to destroy them. It just doesn't work in real life.”
He believes the contradiction is coming to a head now, as phase two of negotiations demands Israeli concessions.
“I think that the government of Israel and Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu are reluctant to reach that point,” Spyer said. “Maybe they would like to keep kicking the can down the road, or maybe they want to get down to pursuing the war regardless of the remaining presence of 25 hostages. It’s not clear.”
His own stance? End the negotiations and finish the war.
“Israel's enemies have got used to Israel [negotiating], and we know that that can have very tragic results,” Spyer concluded.