Israel and Lebanon exchanged drafts through the mediation of U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein in what was described as progress in efforts to reach an agreement to end the fighting across the Lebanon border. The security cabinet convened Sunday after Hochstein, President Joe Biden's special envoy, has also exchanged drafts with Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.
The cabinet was expected to review all pressing issues, including updates on the ceasefire negotiations in Lebanon, the status of prisoners of war and missing persons, and the humanitarian situation. The Biden administration has set a firm demand for Israel to significantly improve humanitarian aid access to Gaza within 30 days, warning that failure to do so could lead to a U.S. arms embargo.
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(Photo: Abir Sultan/ AFP, Alex Brandon/ AP, Susan Walsh/ AP, Alexander Scherbak, Reuters, IDF)
Sources close to the negotiations report substantial progress, with an increasingly realistic chance of reaching an agreement. They attribute this to Donald Trump’s recent victory in the U.S. presidential election, suggesting that both Biden and Trump administrations share a desire to end the war before Trump's January 20 inauguration, ideally before winter sets in.
Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer flew to Washington on Saturday to meet senior White House officials. Last week, he also visited Russia to promote a Middle Eastern ceasefire, specifically focused on reducing tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in northern Israel. Israel recognizes Russia's influence over Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran and believes Moscow would welcome a ceasefire. In turn, Israel seeks assurances from Russia to prevent weapons smuggling from Syria to Lebanon, aiming to curb Hezbollah’s armament.
The emerging agreement includes principles requiring Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River. For the first 60 days, the IDF will remain in the initial line of Lebanese villages to allow the Lebanese army to dismantle Hezbollah's infrastructure in the buffer area between the border and the Litani. After this period, the IDF would pull back to the Blue Line.
IDF forces operate in South Lebanon
(IDF)
The ceasefire agreement outlines an enforcement mechanism. Israel insists on preserving military freedom if the mechanism fails, reserving the right to respond to any violations, a condition included in a side letter attached to the agreement.
Hezbollah sources told Saudi Arabia’s Al-Hadath that the organization is willing to withdraw north of the Litani but rejects one term—Israel's freedom of movement in Lebanon. “Hezbollah agrees to most of the stated terms, including avoiding rearmament,” the sources added.
Israeli sources emphasize the importance of sealing off weapon smuggling channels, saying, “If we don't, Hezbollah will rearm, and our efforts would be wasted.” They clarified that Israel's objective isn’t to destroy Hezbollah as it did with Hamas but noted, “We have achieved significant progress against Hezbollah, and it’s fortunate we didn’t finalize a deal before achieving these goals.” According to these sources, the ceasefire will allow residents to return safely only if they genuinely feel secure, without Hezbollah snipers targeting them. “This goal is achievable through the ceasefire, while we continue to target enemy positions, as we did today in Syria.”
Discussions are ongoing between Israel and the U.S. to finalize the enforcement mechanism and Israel's operational flexibility. “This doesn’t mean we need to be in Lebanon, but ultimately we need the capacity to enforce and act, and I’m confident we will have it,” one source said.
Israel has also highlighted the strong alignment between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President-elect Trump. They share a common vision: an end to hostilities on all fronts that culminates in a decisive victory. Meanwhile, Dermer is expected to meet with Trump and his team to address two critical issues: ensuring Iran does not achieve nuclear capabilities and advancing normalization with Saudi Arabia. Dermer will present Trump with intelligence on Iran’s nuclear progress. “Trump is determined to stop Iran, initially with sanctions, but our message is that only a credible military option will sway Tehran,” Israeli sources noted.
One Israeli source pointed out that Netanyahu spoke with Trump three times in recent days, adding, “We are aligned with Trump and share a unified vision.”
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