Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran in an operation attributed to Israel, prompting Iran to threaten severe retaliation and raising fears of a regional war. The pressing question remains: why was he eliminated in the capital of the Islamic Republic rather than elsewhere?
Haniyeh had visited numerous countries in recent months as part of Hamas' diplomatic efforts to end the war, meeting Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul, visiting Cairo and regularly residing in Doha, Qatar. Despite these travels, he was assassinated in Tehran, where he was attending the inauguration of Iran's new president.
Israel's choice is straightforward: it had pledged to Qatar not to target Hamas leadership on its soil. This limited the locations where Israel could act against Haniyeh. It is likely that Israel avoided actions in Turkey to prevent complications with Erdogan, who recently threatened military intervention in the war.
Choosing Tehran allowed Israel to achieve two objectives: eliminate Hamas' top leader and send a message to Tehran that it is not invulnerable. If Iran continues to host terrorist organizations, it will pay a heavy price at home.
This also serves as a warning to Erdogan, who has hosted Hamas officials for high-profile summits and is considering allowing them to reside permanently in Turkey. However, given Turkey's NATO membership, such a bold Israeli operation on its soil is a non-starter.
Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran is a stark reminder to Iran of its intelligence vulnerabilities and Israel's long reach. Iran seemed emboldened following missile and drone attacks against Israel last April.
Iran's outgoing intelligence minister, Esmail Khatib, claimed just last week, six days before Haniyeh's assassination, that "the greatest achievement of my tenure is dismantling the Mossad's infiltration network in Iran." His statement has now become a subject of ridicule among regime opponents, as Haniyeh's assassination joins a long list of actions attributed to Israel within the heart of the Islamic Republic.