On October 7, 2023, Israel experienced an event that many compared to the American September 11 terror attack. In terms of the number of casualties relative to population size, it could be said it was larger by order of magnitude. The 2001 attack led to one of the largest intelligence and military efforts ever undertaken by the United States and the entire world, attempting to capture Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.
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This effort lasted a little over a decade, involving operations, wars, and substantial budget allocations in an attempt to neutralize him and dismantle his organization and its leadership. Does Al-Qaeda still exist today? It seems so, but it is dispersed, weakened, and lacks significant leadership.
Even its "successor," the Islamic State, has undergone a similar process. While it and its ideology still exist, as evidenced by the attack at the memorial ceremony for Qasem Soleimani in Iran, its military capabilities suffered dramatically including its ability to garner mass support.
Now, after a little over three months of war against Hamas, voices in Israel are calling for an immediate halt. This is in light of the organization's firm stance, stating there will be no negotiation for the release of Israeli hostages as long as the fighting continues and the IDF remains in the Strip.
These voices argue that we must do everything to release the captives, including stopping the war and retreating, even at the cost of conceding or accepting the survival of Hamas’ rule. In their view, we lost on the first day, and that cannot be changed, so the focus should be on releasing the hostages first and then dealing with Hamas.
The release of the captives is a top priority, for me as well. There isn’t a single person in Israel who wouldn't want to see their release. The question, and therein lies the major controversy, is how to achieve that and at what cost.
Is the statement "at any cost" relevant? Is risking the lives of thousands or tens of thousands of Israelis a legitimate price? Is the quickest way to bring Hamas to release the hostages through Israel’s surrender? Or is military pressure more effective, especially against the organization's leaders?
I don't have any complaints for the families of the captives. It seems that if, God forbid, I had a family member or a close one imprisoned by Hamas, I would demand that the State of Israel do much more than it currently does and would go out to protest every in the streets to increase pressure on the government to act. Nevertheless, there are things that a sovereign state that experienced October 7 can’t agree to.
It’s impossible to stop the war now. It would be a grave mistake and a security failure. We will pay for it in the north against Hezbollah and shortly after, against Hamas in the south. We can’t stop it because Hamas will only increase its demands in the negotiations over the hostages, and won’t rush to release them in order to prolong the cease-fire as much as possible.
It’s impossible because a complete stop of the fighting and withdrawal from Gaza will lead to the restoration of Hamas' rule in the Strip, along with the recovery of its military capabilities while Israel's hands will be tied to an agreement. Then, we will see the next October 7 sooner than expected.
It’s impossible to stop now because Israel has commitments to residents living close to the Gaza and northern borders, who need to return to their homes and be able to live there knowing they’re safe.
In 2011, Israel decided to release 1,027 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the release of Gilad Shalit. It was a mistake. I opposed this deal and believed it would turn Hamas into an empire. Besides Yahya Sinwar, several other senior Hamas members were released, responsible not only for the October 7 attack but also for building the organization's military strength.
In addition, this solidified the Palestinian public's understanding that kidnappings work, and Hamas' way is one that’s working. That deal gave it a huge prize in the Palestinian public opinion, manifesting strong support in the streets. The October 7 massacre also boosted support for the organization to unprecedented levels.
Israel’s halt at this time will ruin any chance of a future agreement with the Palestinians and prove to them that Hamas is the solution. In other words, only strength works against the Jews.
The statements, demonstrations, and articles calling to stop and pay any price for the release of the hostages don’t help the negotiations (which aren’t progressing at this time) but only hinder them. Senior Hamas officials may think that Israel is growing weaker and will so continue to fortify their position.
Avi Issacharoff Photo: Yuval ChenThe statement made by opposition leader Yair Lapid saying that "Israel can eliminate Sinwar even in February," is irrelevant because Hamas will demand clear assurances demanding its senior members won’t be harmed, ensuring they’ll keep the hostages and delay their release as much as possible.
The only way to bring Hamas to compromise in the negotiations with Israel is to target more of its senior members until a real threat to the organization's survival is clear. Until then, Israel can’t agree to a deal that includes an absolute halt in fighting now, as it would pave the way for its own defeat.