Two weeks since Iran unleashed a barrage of approximately 200 missiles on Israeli targets, the clock ticks toward a strategic response. As revealed by Ynet, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi convened in secret at an Intelligence Corps base on Sunday, dissecting the intricate details of a potential strike within Iranian borders.
The presence of Cabinet Minister Ron Dermer, a Netanyahu confidant, underscored the meeting's high stakes. Senior military intelligence officers also attended, indicating that the decisive call would rest with Netanyahu, Gallant and Halevi, while other cabinet members would receive only a broad briefing. It's speculated that the operation's specifics are already drafted, shrouded in secrecy until the opportune moment.
On the eve of Hassan Nasrallah's elimination last month, Netanyahu undertook a similar visit to an intelligence base, receiving an in-depth briefing from department officers. This meeting reportedly fortified Netanyahu's resolve to greenlight the high-stakes operation, alongside other maneuvers that delivered significant blows to the Lebanese terrorist organization.
Recent reports from Tehran suggest Iran is under intense pressure, fearing what they expect to be Israel's formidable retaliation. Conversely, Israel's timeframe is constrained by the looming U.S. elections. During this period, Israel receives augmented air defense support from the U.S., part of a broader strategy to brace for potential Iranian counteractions while intensifying internal pressure on the Ayatollahs' regime.
Hezbollah is amplifying its pressure. The Lebanese front intensified concurrently, as Israel endured another day of widespread rocket fire on Monday. Hezbollah not only ramped up its aggression but also achieved success with a drone strike that claimed the lives of four soldiers. Israeli assessments suggest Hezbollah timed the attack on the dining hall to maximize casualties, targeting a time when it would be teeming with soldiers. The drone, Iranian-made, can carry up to 11 pounds of explosives, guided by GPS.
Air Force Commander Major General Tomer Bar has prioritized the targeting of all operatives and commanders within Hezbollah's UAV unit (Unit 127). Meanwhile, the IDF highlights the effectiveness of initial strikes, beginning with the "pager attack." Senior sources indicate that Hezbollah's strike capabilities were anticipated to be much higher.
Israeli attacks in the Bekaa sector of Lebanon
While assaults on Beirut are paused, ground maneuvers in southern Lebanon persist. The Northern Command estimates that 800 terrorists have been killed, 80 in the last 24 hours alone. The IDF also uncovered a command center with an equipped kitchen, missiles for helicopter firing, shells and motorcycles. It turns out an underground facility was constructed in the heart of a civilian neighborhood, intended for Radwan forces as part of their plan to capture the Galilee.
Despite maneuvering successes, the broader strategy demands attention, aiming to end the conflict while maximizing operational gains. Clearing Hezbollah's infrastructure from the contact line is a given, but it must not devolve into a war of attrition. The IDF has set clear conditions: designating the fence-adjacent area as off-limits to Lebanese civilians, barring Radwan forces from entering villages, and most crucially, enforcing Israeli action, including opening fire on combatants in uniform or civilian guise.
Yossi YehoshuaPhoto: Yossi YehoshuaA senior IDF official says: "In this new reality, we will attack any Hezbollah buildup, including arms shipments, even if it means renewing the war. Every enemy force buildup will be targeted. This applies to Hamas as well."
In a related context, the forgotten front of Gaza was also mentioned. "We must meet our objectives there: the return of hostages and the dismantling of Hamas," he states. "Additional forces need to be redirected there. At least one more division is necessary to push the residents of northern Gaza southward."
Currently, only the 162nd Division operates there, insufficient to accomplish said task. Contrary to military statements, there's a delay in action impacting the ability to pursue a resolution on the southern front, which cannot be postponed until after the holidays.
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