Can Qatar and Egypt’s rivalry drive a breakthrough hostage deal?

Mossad chief set to meet CIA director and Qatari PM in Doha create framework for potential deal; Qatar, noting Cairo’s increased involvement, aims to stay central in talks; US officials believe major breakthrough may only come after US elections

Mossad head David Barnea will head to Doha on Sunday to join CIA Director Bill Burns and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed Al Thani for a summit focused on resuming hostage negotiations.
The talks aim to reignite discussions on a potential hostage exchange deal, despite U.S. officials reportedly believing that any major agreement would likely be deferred until after the U.S. presidential election in early November.
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ראש ה-CIA ביל ברנס, דוד דדי ברנע ראש המוסד
ראש ה-CIA ביל ברנס, דוד דדי ברנע ראש המוסד
Mossad head David Barnea and CIA Director Bill Burns
(Photo: Yariv Katz, Tom Williams/AP)
Egyptian intelligence head Hassan Rashad, who met with a Hamas delegation in Cairo over the weekend, is not expected to attend the summit, though Hamas could join the negotiations later.
This meeting marks the first in Doha since the August summit and comes after the elimination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza last week, a move Israel saw as removing a major obstacle to a deal.
Israeli officials are cautiously optimistic, noting that a restrained Iranian response to Israel’s overnight attacks could shift Hamas’ focus away from regional conflict and back to negotiation.
In recent weeks, Israeli and American officials, including Barnea, have coordinated behind the scenes to draft a framework that considers recent shifts in regional dynamics. CIA Director Burns hopes to use this momentum to push for consensus on a renewed framework. A proposed “mini-deal” from Egypt that would release four hostages in exchange for a temporary two-week ceasefire is also under discussion.
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יחיא סינוואר
יחיא סינוואר
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar
(Photo: MAHMUD HAMS / AFP)
Encouraged by various recent developments—including Sinwar's assassination, Hamas’s engagement with Egyptian officials, and Hezbollah’s weakened position—Israel believes the timing is ideal for negotiations. With both Qatar and Egypt vying for influence in facilitating a potential deal, Israel hopes the Doha summit will align the Qatari and Egyptian frameworks into a unified proposal.
The summit's outcome may hinge on U.S. pressure on Qatar, which Israel sees as capable of applying strong leverage on Hamas but thus far has refrained from doing so. An Israeli official emphasized that time is critical in resolving the hostage situation, adding, “We are committed to advancing a deal as quickly as possible.”
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