As the IDF continues its operations in the West Bank trying to prevent murderous attacks such as the one that resulted in the murder of three Israelis on Monday, it still faces difficulties stopping the flood of illegal weapons making their way to the West Bank from Iran via the Jordanian border.
The IDF Central Command refers to these efforts as the "weapons campaign," citing the over 1,100 rifles seized by troops in the past year through round-the-clock operations across the West Bank.
However, a critical unknown factor remains: the IDF can't estimate the total number of weapons held by Palestinians in the West Bank, beyond the thousands of licensed firearms in the possession of Palestinian Authority security forces.
According to an intelligence assessment by Central Command from two years ago, one in six Palestinian households in the West Bank contains an illegal weapon, ranging from handguns and makeshift rifles to standard AK47s or M-16s.
"We know we're on the right track based on weapon prices, which have surged this past year — from 30,000 shekels ($8,200) per long-barreled rifle to 60,000–70,000 shekels ($19,200)," a senior military official said this week.
"But when we get intel on a weapons dealer or a handgun hidden in the garden of an unregistered Palestinian, likely intended for self-defense, we'll prioritize catching the dealer."
The IDF's goal is to maintain the West Bank as a secondary front. Despite this, offensive actions within Palestinian areas remain constant, including eliminations taking place almost weekly.
Presently, the IDF deploys around 20 battalions for security duties in the West Bank. While this figure is lower than during peak terrorism levels two years before the Gaza war, it remains 7–8 battalions higher than the low point in the late 2010s.
However, constraints are evident. Most of these battalions are composed of reservists or units outside the compulsory infantry or armored corps, and reinforcements from Gaza are only expected next month.
The Nahal Brigade's battalions will deploy to areas like Hebron and Nablus. Artillery forces are gradually returning to West Bank security tasks as they wind down operations in other arenas.
"We're acutely aware of the implications of a West Bank escalation requiring large-scale reinforcements and diverting resources and attention from Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, which remain the General Staff's primary fronts," the military clarified.
The IDF's main challenge involves handling armed processions in Palestinian cities in broad daylight. Recent efforts in the military push for units to act harshly against such displays, even if they take place during funerals.
However, such attempts have so far failed: Troops dispatched to ambush armed individuals were detected, causing the armed groups to disperse quickly.
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"They're careful to march near children, ensuring they're photographed. It's unclear if we'd gain anything by eliminating two armed individuals at the cost of harming three nearby children," the military explained. They clarified that many previously avoided measures are now being implemented.
Despite the increasing threat posed by high-grade explosive devices, APC deployments remain absent. Tanks also aren't expected to return to the West Bank anytime soon — last seen there during the Second Intifada in 2000 — even after an anti-tank missile was discovered in the Jenin refugee camp.