Israeli security officials generally have no problem identifying the motives and reasons the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) carry out attacks against the Jewish State, either through their proxies or directly.
Past attempts show that it is usually an act of retribution for an attack attributed to Israel or any other Western factor in the Middle East against an Iranian target, and the IRGC aims to harm the interest of that party in the most vulnerable point.
An example of such an incident was when Israeli foiled Iranian arms shipments to its proxy Hezbollah and Syria. Weapon shipments were sent with cargo ships through the Suez Canal.
The Israeli navy attacked those ships, and the Iranians responded by attacking cargo ships that sailed through the Gulf of Oman and were partially owned by Israeli businessmen. Similar to the most recent UAV attack on an oil tanker, operated by Singapore-based Eastern Pacific Shipping, which is a company ultimately owned by Israeli billionaire Idan Ofer.
The vessels weren't under full Israeli ownership, but as far as the Iranian are concerned, it is enough to carry the attack.
The attack on Tuesday made Israeli security officials presume it intended to disrupt the begining of the FIFA World Cup in Qatar since the country announced it will allow Israelis to travel to watch games, and even approve direct flights from Israel to Qatar, although Qatar has good ties with Iran.
In Iran, meanwhile, they made the same claim as local news outlet NourNews accused Israel of attacking the oil tanker "in order to divert attention from the World Cup."
Another possibility is that the attack was a retaliation for the attack against tanker trucks carrying fuel and other trucks carrying weapons for the militias in Syria's eastern province of Deir el-Zour last week. The convoy crossed the Iraqi border toward Syria heading to Damascus and Lebanon. And immediately after most of the tankers entered Syrian territory, they were attacked from the air.
It was reported in the Saudi network Al-Arabiya, that there were also several trucks carrying containers with Iranian missiles or anti-aircraft systems, intended for Syria and Hezbollah.
It was unclear where the convoy was coming from, but it was reported some of those who were killed were Iranian nationals. In addition, Iran's state TV claimed the convoy attack was carried out by U.S. drones and helicopters, offering no evidence for the claims.
The Iranians probably couldn't determine who was really behind the attack, so they found a target that would presumably harm both the U.S. and Israel's interests. In general, the Iranians are very sensitive about incidents related to oil, and the evidence is that six months ago, they captured two Greek tankers In response to the Americans seizing two of their own tankers. On Wednesday, Greece and Iran reached an agreement to release the tankers held by Tehran since May.
Israeli and U.S. intelligence organizations won't find it very difficult to decipher the real circumstances behind the attack on the oil tanker. It is also very likely the Iranians are trying to send Israel a message: "If you will attack our convoys on land, we will attack your interests at sea."
It is also clear that Israel doesn't have any interest in starting a maritime campaign with Iran, as it was from 2019 to 2021, but security officials made it clear that if Iran continues to attempt to execute attacks on the international scene, Israel will also recruit international parties and act on its own, in order to end a naval conflict that may develop.