A source familiar with Israel's plans told The Washington Post on Saturday morning that "Israel designed its strike with the intention of minimizing casualties and keeping the impact to a level that would allow Iran to deny major damage and contain the situation, according to a person briefed on Israel’s plans, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss classified matters."
According to the source, "This was a larger-scale version of Israel's response in April when Israel struck central Iran, and Iranian officials claimed no significant damage was done."
Iranian media comparing Israeli and Iranian attacks
It's worth noting that after Israel's response to the Iranian attack in April, which National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir even called "weak," sparking anger in Israel, Iran did not retaliate—thus effectively closing the chapter until it was reopened with the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Although Israel anticipates some form of response from Iran to last night's attack—which was significantly broader than the one in April—Tehran currently seems to be trying to de-escalate.
Only hours after the strike did Iran's military admit that two of its soldiers were killed in the attacks, which focused on Tehran and the Khuzestan and Ilam provinces in the west. Earlier, Iran insisted that the strikes caused "minimal damage" and that most were intercepted.
Sky News in Arabic reported that Iran informed Israel, through a third party, that it would not respond to the attack. Conversely, according to "Nour News," affiliated with Iran's Revolutionary Guards, "Tehran's policy regarding the Israeli attack is to respond without haste. Israeli aggression cannot be ignored."
Iranian mocking Israeli strike in Tehran
Meanwhile, local media broadcast images showing normalcy from various cities across Iran, including Tehran's Mehrabad International Airport, which was reported to have been attacked. Iranian networks mocked the Israeli attack, sharing videos of residents dismissing it, as well as a video comparing the Iranian attack on Israel to the Israeli attack on Iran.
While Iranian officials maintained silence this morning, Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref limited his remarks to social media, stating, "Iran's strength humiliates the enemies of the homeland."
Mehrabad Airport operating normally
Despite Iran's ridicule, Israeli sources stated that "Iran is trying to claim that the explosions are due to their successful air defense. That's a lie. They were a complete failure, with zero interceptions." According to Israeli assessments, Tehran is expected to respond to the attack, though it is still unclear how.
An Israeli source familiar with the details said, "The intelligence provided by the Military Intelligence Directorate in this event is beyond imagination, extremely so. The strike was precise on factories producing surface-to-surface missiles to ensure a significant impact on Iran. This is 16-digit precise intelligence (full coordinates) on an irreplaceable factory, with a precise Air Force strike, not near or approximate."
The source claimed, "We attacked most of the surface-to-surface missile production capabilities, aiming to prevent Iran from continuing their production. It's as if someone dismantled Rafael's missile production line."
Regarding the anticipation of an Iranian response, it is worth noting that the U.S. warned Iran of "consequences" for such an action and stated it was prepared in advance to defend Israel against any potential Iranian retaliation. IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari clarified that Israel still has a "large target bank" in Iran and will not hesitate to strike if Tehran chooses to attack.
The decision to first target Iran's air defense systems, reportedly also in Syria and Iraq, effectively allowed Israeli Air Force planes and aircraft free rein in Iranian skies. This knowledge—that Israel can strike Iran again without its defenses—will likely make Tehran think twice before retaliating.
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