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Nine years after former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s email scandal, the controversy has resurfaced amid ongoing battles in Syria following the collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime.
A document from Clinton’s email, dated July 23, 2012, revealed that Israeli intelligence believed the fall of Assad’s regime would ignite a Sunni-Shiite war that would benefit Israel. The document was published on WikiLeaks, which is known for releasing classified political and military information from anonymous journalistic sources and leaks.
According to an unnamed source cited by the site, British and French intelligence agencies believed Israel saw Assad’s downfall as a blow to Iran, isolating it by stripping away its only Middle Eastern ally — a scenario that ultimately unfolded.
The document further read that Assad’s fall could escalate the sectarian conflict in the region and potentially draw in Iran, a development Israeli leaders reportedly did not view as unfavorable. Such a conflict, according to Israeli intelligence analysts at the time, could distract Iran and significantly delay its nuclear ambitions.
Some senior Israeli intelligence officials even considered this scenario a possible catalyst for regime change in Iran. European officials, however, were concerned that Syria’s prolonged conflict could trigger uprisings in neighboring countries, including Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey, potentially leading to the rise of Islamist regimes in place of more moderate governments.
Israel, anticipating such developments, drafted contingency plans in case these nations fell under the control of the Muslim Brotherhood or even more radical groups like al-Qaeda. At the same time, fears of an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities warned such action could worsen regional relations.
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Fighting between Sytian rebels and Assad regime in Syria
(Video: Reuters)
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The document warned a potential attack on Iran could also further destabilize the global economy, with Israel facing blame. It could unite the Iranian population against the U.S. and strengthen ties between Iranians and the ruling ayatollahs rather than weaken them.
European intelligence agencies also feared that an Israeli attack would push Iran to accelerate its nuclear weapons program with support from Russia and China.
In 2012, Turkish military commanders privately stated that an Israeli strike on Iran would trigger a regional war "before Israel’s first airstrike squadron even returns to base." Turkish and European intelligence assessments at the time predicted that thousands of missiles and rockets would rain down on Israel from Iran, Lebanon, Syria and Gaza.
Turkey’s military estimated that Hezbollah forces in Syria and Lebanon had access to more than 200,000 rockets and surface-to-surface missiles. Turkish defense analysts believed an attack from such an arsenal could overwhelm Israel’s defenses.
Leaks also suggested that while Israel was not prepared for a full-scale war with Iran but sought instead to project an imminent threat. A reported plan involved using a Saudi airbase for a potential strike on Iran, then leaking details to the media to signal the West that Israel was serious about military action. However, the plan was ultimately not carried out.