The rising tensions between Israel, Iran, and its Middle Eastern proxies have brought other countries in the region into the conflict.
As Israel and Iran prepare for a possible direct confrontation, neighboring Cyprus has been catapulted into the center of the conflict. Earlier this week, the Cypriot government announced it had completed preparations to facilitate citizen evacuations from Lebanon, should a broader conflict between Israel and the Lebanese-based terrorist group Hezbollah also erupt in the coming days.
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Middle Eastern tensions affecting additional countries
(Photo: Erin Schaff/Pool via REUTERS, EPA, Christophe Ena / POOL / AFP)
Reports said temporary cots have already been set up in schools around Cyprus ahead of what could be a massive influx of people fleeing from Lebanon.
Western powers, including American and European leaders, are still trying to de-escalate the situation.
Simultaneously, many foreign governments have encouraged their citizens to leave Lebanon and Israel as the region braces for a major flare-up, which threatens to spill over into a massive conflict. For the past ten months, Israel and the Gaza-based Hamas terrorist organization have been fighting a war that has also seen the participation of Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies, such as the Houthi rebels from Yemen and Shiite militia groups in Syria and Iraq.
The latest escalation in tensions has seen threats by Iran and Hezbollah to retaliate against the assassination of senior Hamas and Hezbollah commanders. Israel took responsibility for the killing of Hezbollah’s Fuad Shukr. Still, it remained silent regarding the killing of Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, although widely believed to be behind it.
Cyprus, a small island situated between Israel and Lebanon, is sandwiched in the middle. As a key stopover for many destinations in the Middle East, it could turn into an evacuation point for many.
“Cyprus is being dragged into the regional conflict,” Michael Harari, a former Israeli ambassador to Cyprus and policy fellow at Mitvim, the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies, told The Media Line. “To some extent, this is the price it is paying for a decade in which Cyprus got very close. This changed the regional architecture.”
"For Israel, Cyprus gives it strategic depth, something that the Iranian axis views as rude," Harari added.
Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, threatened Cyprus earlier this summer for being exactly that. Nasrallah said he would consider the Mediterranean island as a warring country if it would allow Israel to use its harbors and airports as part of its military campaign against the terrorist organization.
Cyprus is home to two British military bases and is considered a sovereign British territory. According to a former senior Cypriot diplomat speaking on condition of anonymity to The Media Line, the Cypriots are not concerned about a Hezbollah attack on major cities like Larnaca and Nicosia but believe such an attack would target the British bases.
“The Cyprus government is not helping any of the military operations in any way. It is neutral,” the former senior diplomat said. “Cyprus is a neutral space. Everybody is welcome here with our open door policy but on condition that they should not bring their problems here, fight out their differences here, or implicate Cyprus in their problems.”
British forces are part of a coalition aimed at helping Israel defend itself should Iran attack. A similar coalition was successful last spring when Iran launched over 300 missiles and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles toward Israel, most of them intercepted.
Cyprus and Israel share a warm relationship, which includes bilateral military drills involving Israeli special forces training on Cypriot soil and security and energy cooperation. Cyprus is a leading tourist destination for Israelis.
“This has not come at the expense of our other friends in the region,” said the senior diplomat. “We believe Israel should be integrated into the region, and Cyprus can play a bridging role in this because we have equally good relations with everybody. In our mind, developing this relationship with Israel does not mean we have to sacrifice other relationships.”
In recent years, Israel, Cyprus, and Greece have increased their energy cooperation following the significant discoveries of natural gas deposits in their economic zones.
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Israel, Greece and Cyprus share strategic relations in the face of Turkish tensions
(Photo: AP Photo/Petros Karadjias)
Throughout its history, Cyprus has had tense relations with Turkey. Deteriorating relations between Israel and Turkey partly enabled the warming of relations between Israel and Cyprus. Each country has tried to balance its international ties, treading carefully. Despite warming relations with the Jewish state, Cyprus has been diligent about portraying itself as neutral in the region.
“Cyprus’ attempts to balance is likely not perceived as a genuine attempt by Iran or Hezbollah,” Harari said. “Cyprus being closer to Israel has also brought it closer to the US, an asset for Cyprus. But every asset comes with a price.”
Cyprus has been eager to highlight its role as having good relations with all sides. For Israel, Cypriot airspace would be critical for much of its air force operations against Lebanon, Iran, or elsewhere in the region.
“If any kind of facilitation is requested on humanitarian grounds, like evacuation or transportation to hospitals, Cyprus will certainly help as it has in the past,” said the former diplomat. “Concerning military operations, I would expect Cyprus would not approve this, but the Israeli air force would not ask for such permission.”
Cyprus has hosted joint Israeli-Cypriot military drills in recent years as relations warmed up between the two.
In the last war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006, Cyprus played a critical role in the naval and air evacuation from Lebanon of citizens from many countries.
Today, approximately 20,000 people of Lebanese descent live in Cyprus. Many fled the Lebanese civil war, and others sought a better economic future as their homeland’s economy faltered.
Israeli intelligence estimates there are also a high number of Hezbollah covert operatives on the island, which have likely reported to Nasrallah on Israel-Cypriot cooperation. On two occasions last year, Cypriot officials confirmed that plots by Iranian nationals to attack Israelis in Cyprus had been foiled.
There is also a growing Israeli community, which some estimate is as large as the Lebanese community.
According to Eyal Dorfman, vice CEO of R.D International Real Estate Consultants, there have been fluctuations in Israeli interest in investing in property in Cyprus. Last year, when Israel was engulfed in internal strife due to a government attempt to reform the judicial system, interest increased, but it subsided at the beginning of the current war.
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Benjamin Netanyahu meets Cypriot Prime Minister Nikos Christodoulides
(Photo: Ofer Meron/GPO)
"In recent months, we have seen a substantial increase in the interest," Dorfman told The Media Line. "This could be in part because of the regional situation, but mainly because people want an option of a safer place in order to stay there as a temporary shelter. Also, some Israelis are looking for the option to spread their finances and risks."
Cyprus is appealing to Israelis because of its proximity to Israel, but it is also perceived as a safe place with attractive real estate prices.
"Some people are just looking for a good investment, nothing to do with the security situation," Dorfman added.
The island state is an attractive investment destination for different populations from the Middle East. Visas are easy to obtain, and property ownership guarantees residency.
The region is now waiting to see if and when Hezbollah and Iran will act and how the conflict will suck in other actors, such as Cyprus.