Aftermath of Israeli strike on Hezbollah's command center in Beirut's Dahieh
(Photo: Reuters)
Imagery from Beirut’s Dahieh district on Friday night suggests that Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah’s command center employed high-powered bunker-busting bombs weighing nearly a ton each, and in significant quantities.
These bombs are believed to be capable of penetrating several feet of concrete and tens of feet of earth. The strikes were spread across thousands of square feet, both above and below ground, making it difficult to determine whether Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah was present and, if so, whether he was killed or injured.
Such bombs cause severe damage to targets, making identification of casualties extremely challenging. The intensity of the blast, combined with the debris and heat generated, complicates efforts to confirm the number of people affected, especially when the target is buried under massive layers of rubble.
If Nasrallah was not in the attacked location, it is likely Hezbollah would have released evidence or a statement. However, their silence suggests uncertainty.
A similar situation occurred in Gaza last July when Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif was killed in a powerful strike while briefly emerging from a tunnel. It took several days to confirm the outcome, even though the attack was on a small building above ground.
The question at hand is how this strike will impact Hezbollah and Israel. Hezbollah is a political organization with a formidable military wing of 30,000 to 50,000 operatives and an arsenal that includes rockets, missiles, cruise missiles and drones, surpassing the capabilities of many countries, including European powers.
In the past nine days, Israel has significantly weakened Hezbollah’s senior and mid-level command through targeted strikes. According to foreign reports, the pager attack has also disrupted lower ranks responsible for operating weapon systems.
However, these actions have not rendered Hezbollah inoperative. The group still possesses long-range rockets and precision-guided missiles. Even if top leaders were eliminated, local commanders could still independently launch missiles and drones at Israel, driven by high motivation and potentially adopting a "scorched earth" strategy. This has prompted Israeli officials to urge maximum vigilance and readiness to seek shelter for extended periods.
Israeli Air Force jets are patrolling over Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley to ensure that any local Hezbollah commander attempting to launch heavy or precision-guided missiles at Israel will be swiftly eliminated.
Iran can't look away
The strategic consequences of the strike in Beirut hinge on whether or not Nasrallah survived. Analysts suggest that Iran, which has supplied Hezbollah with its arsenal of heavy and precision-guided missiles, will likely be involved in any response to preserve the group’s strategic capabilities and counter a potential Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities.
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Aftermath of Israeli strike on Hezbollah's command center in Beirut's Dahieh
(Photo: AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)
Nasrallah is considered a key figure in the so-called “Axis of Resistance” and ranks alongside Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the top. Although Khamenei is the senior partner, he highly values Nasrallah’s counsel and expertise on Israel.
For Iran, a blow to Nasrallah would be akin to losing a Shiite religious leader, a core component of its strategy to spread the Islamic Revolution in the Middle East and beyond. Such a loss would compel Tehran to seek retribution, if only to uphold religious and sectarian principles.
Experts anticipate a robust Iranian response, which could involve direct attacks from Iran or through proxy militias in Iraq and Syria loyal to the mullahs. This scenario suggests that Iran may instruct the remaining Hezbollah commanders in Lebanon to coordinate with Tehran in planning a retaliatory strike, potentially leading to a significant escalation in the region.
All decks have been reshuffled
Nasrallah’s potential death could significantly impact Lebanon’s internal political dynamics, with implications for Israel. If confirmed, the Shiite community would be left with one key leader of Nasrallah’s stature: Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese Parliament and head of the Shiite Amal Movement, from which the more radical Hezbollah emerged.
Hezbollah’s political leadership considers Hashem Safieddine, head of the group's executive council, as Nasrallah’s deputy, but reports suggest he may also have been injured in the Dahieh strike. Should that be the case, Berri could become the primary leader for the Shiite community and the figure other Lebanese sects and Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s government would turn to for guidance on the next steps.
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White House special envoy Amos Hochstein and Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri
(Photo: REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir)
U.S. officials have stressed they were not informed of the Israeli operation, despite having a long-standing enmity with Nasrallah. Washington seeks to maintain its role as a mediator and advocate for a cease-fire in the region.
If Nasrallah was indeed killed, the U.S. would likely engage directly with the Lebanese government and Berri, as the perceived link between a cease-fire in northern Israel and a cease-fire in Gaza may be severed, potentially freeing Berri and the government to negotiate more openly.
The effect of this scenario on the negotiations for the release of hostages held by Hamas remains uncertain. On one hand, if Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar (assuming he is still alive), sees Nasrallah’s fate, he might realize his own could be similar and that his death would not serve Hamas’ goals of survival in Gaza.
On the other hand, Nasrallah’s assassination could heighten the likelihood of a regional conflict that Sinwar might exploit, making him less inclined to agree to a hostage deal.
Nasrallah’s elimination could also potentially increase the chances of renewed efforts for a hostage exchange, as it reshuffles the deck and forces all parties involved in the multi-front conflict to reconsider their positions and reassess their interests, particularly Iran’s. The strike on Beirut might provoke a strategic shift that could lead to an end to the war.
If the U.S. wants to advance both the hostage negotiations and a cease-fire in the north, it needs to create a credible deterrent to prevent Iran from considering a regional war through a direct attack on Israel or its proxies.
All sides, including Israel and its citizens, will need to wait for the dust to settle and the facts to emerge before reassessing their strategies and deciding their next moves.