As IDF troops maneuvered through southern Lebanon, intelligence reported suspected Hezbollah operatives approaching a weapons cache site. Colonel Yossi Fenso, Deputy Commander of the 146th Division, instructed troops to await further orders. The operatives, unarmed and on motorcycles, eventually disappeared without incident.
IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi receiving a field assessment is southern Lebanon
(Video: IDF Spokesperson's Unit)
Coordinating with U.S. CENTCOM
For two months, a joint operations center between the IDF and U.S. CENTCOM has overseen the ceasefire agreement. If a Hezbollah violation is detected, IDF gives Lebanon’s army 24 hours to address it. Left unresolved, IDF intervenes, either via airstrikes or ground forces. Immediate threats, however, prompt swift action without coordination.
The mechanism has functioned well, with cooperation from Lebanese authorities. Recently, Hezbollah operatives on motorcycles were spotted near the border, but they withdrew without any need for Lebanese or IDF intervention.
Hezbollah’s fortified zones
In one Shiite village, relatively intact buildings bore minor damage from prior IDF operations. However, another nearby village revealed the extent of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure. This area stored weapons, housed rocket launchers, and served as a base for the Radwan Unit, Hezbollah’s elite force, which planned cross-border assaults on Israeli towns like Rosh Hanikra and the tiny community of Shlomi.
Hezbollah utilized dense vegetation and hidden pathways, not underground tunnels but camouflaged routes, to store arms and prepare attacks. When the IDF entered, bulldozers cleared the vegetation, exposing and neutralizing these sites. However, during initial clashes, three Hezbollah operatives killed four IDF soldiers.
Had Hezbollah launched its planned invasion in October 2023, the damage could have been catastrophic. Instead, it opted for a war of attrition, allowing IDF to dismantle fortified zones and push the Radwan Unit north of the Litani River. The scale of Hezbollah’s preparations, led by the now-eliminated commander Ibrahim Aqil, could have caused devastation exceeding Hamas’ October 7 attack.
Despite progress, the area remains unstable. It may take months before residents of northern Israeli communities like Zar’it and Metula can safely return. Lebanese Army forces have yet to deploy sufficiently south of the Litani River, as required by the ceasefire. While some units have set up checkpoints, they primarily prevent civilians from crossing into areas near the Israeli border.
IDF engineers continue uncovering hidden Hezbollah infrastructure, including weapons caches and tunnels. In one instance, a division believed it had completed operations in a village, only for intelligence to reveal concealed underground infrastructure. The elite Shaldag unit was deployed to locate and destroy these hidden sites.
Even now, Israeli forces regularly inspect valleys and dense vegetation, discovering and detonating Hezbollah positions. Over the weekend, IDF destroyed several facilities, with explosions heard throughout the area. Hezbollah’s media outlet falsely claimed these were Israeli airstrikes violating the ceasefire, though they were ground demolitions by IDF.
Hezbollah’s strategy
Hezbollah appears to be creating excuses to justify future ceasefire violations, blaming Israel for alleged airstrikes. For example, after IDF troops destroyed rocket launchers aimed at Israel, Hezbollah accused Israel of breaking the agreement. The Lebanese Army had failed to address the launchers within 24 hours, prompting IDF action.
The Lebanese Army’s lack of capacity further complicates enforcement. Many soldiers lack proper equipment and experience, and some, being Shiite, may lack motivation to act against Hezbollah.
IDF has informed CENTCOM that it will not withdraw from southern Lebanon unless the Lebanese Army fulfills its obligations and Hezbollah’s military infrastructure is dismantled. General Jasper Jeffers of CENTCOM recently emphasized to Lebanese officials that an IDF withdrawal depends on decisive action by their army.
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Additionally, Israel’s northern border defenses remain incomplete. IDF is rapidly building new outposts and deploying detection systems to ensure residents of border communities like Zar’it see IDF positions, not Hezbollah or Lebanese civilians.
Hopes for stability
The upcoming Lebanese presidential election on January 19 could stabilize the situation. The U.S., France, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar are pushing for the election, with hopes that the next president will be Lebanese Army Commander General Joseph Aoun, seen as a capable, unifying figure. However, Hezbollah supports its own candidate and a man considered to have been a solid Bashar al-Assad ally, Suleiman Frangieh, making Aoun’s election uncertain.
If Aoun is elected, the ceasefire could solidify, allowing Israeli forces to withdraw within months as Lebanese forces are reinforced. Until then, IDF remains cautious, aware of the challenges of operating in what has long been described as Lebanon’s deep and treacherous “mud.”