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It is hard to draw parallels between last month's meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the recent meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The meeting with Netanyahu was characterized by smiles, a relaxed atmosphere, and mutual understanding of the agenda. In contrast, the meeting with Zelensky on Friday was marked by significant hostility. Body language also reflected the difference – Trump and Netanyahu were close and exuded mutual openness, while Zelensky, in a photo taken in the Oval Office, appeared to clutch his own body, seemingly desperate to avoid harm.
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Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky argue in White House photo opp
Could Netanyahu’s fate mirror that of Zelensky? Could the unpredictable resident of the White House lose patience with Netanyahu, transforming from an ally to a critic? Netanyahu is no political novice; he would never make the mistake of irritating Trump, especially not in front of journalists. What Netanyahu allowed himself to do in his famous meeting with president Barack Obama, which many Americans saw as arrogant preaching, would never happen with the unpredictable American president. On the contrary, Netanyahu has signaled openness to even Trump’s most outlandish ideas, including the "Riviera in Gaza," understanding that provoking the Washington leader is not an option.
Trump is driven by impulses and frustrations. Could Netanyahu shift from being a friendly figure to a frustrating one in Trump’s eyes? Yes – if Netanyahu blocks a U.S.-Saudi deal, denies Trump the chance to win a Nobel Prize, prefers extremist figures like Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and former national security minister Itamar Ben Gvir over the president, or if Netanyahu lies to Trump and is caught. In the meantime, Israel continues to dance to Trump’s tune, including voting in favor of Russia at the U.N. and against Europe and Ukraine.
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When could the rift occur? When Trump’s personal interests (not necessarily those of the U.S.) clash with Israel’s interests. This could come in the context of a compromise with the Palestinians, which would be a condition of the Saudis for a larger deal that is expected to profit the Trump family for generations, or a compromise with Iran in lieu of a military strike.
As long as the focus is on the destruction of Hamas, there is no gap between Netanyahu and Trump. As Netanyahu put it, “There’s no sunlight between us.” What is clear, though, is that the old rules of diplomacy no longer apply. The global order has evaporated. Ukraine may end up paying a heavy price for Trump’s affinity for authoritarian, anti-democratic leaders.
It seems that Zelensky fell into a trap set by Trump and Vice President JD Vance. Zelensky and his team appear to have failed to prepare for the meeting, effectively walking into a trap. In contrast, Netanyahu and his team, particularly Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and former U.S. envoy to Israel David Friedman, seem to understand Trump and his circle much better. They resonate with Trump’s agenda. But Netanyahu knows that if he makes mistakes, he will feel the full force of Trump’s wrath. For now, he knows how to navigate his relationship with the American president.
The shocking incident with Zelensky only proves that Netanyahu must maintain perfect coordination with Trump and the White House to avoid unwanted surprises. However, that coordination may come at a price Netanyahu may not wish to pay. It serves as a reminder that the prime minister is dependent on Trump. He has no leverage to pressure him. Trump’s current strength benefits Netanyahu, but this could turn against him eventually—though not in the near future or with high likelihood.