Amid the exchange of accusations between Israel and Hamas regarding the delays in the emerging hostage deal, feverish talks to advance the agreement continue Tuesday night. In an effort to reach the finish line, the negotiations are expected to extend well into the night. The emerging outline consists of several stages, and includes a cease-fire, the release of hostages in phases, and also changes in the deployment of IDF forces in the Gaza Strip.
The negotiations, which have been going on for many weeks, are being conducted under complete secrecy, among other things to prevent political pressure; but in recent days, apparently due to the narrowing of the gaps between the parties, many reports have begun to surface regarding their details.
According to the outline, in the first stage, 33 hostages will be released. The list that Israel passed to Hamas included 34 hostages, hostage Youssef Ziyadne, whose body was recovered by IDF soldiers from the Gaza Strip last week, was removed from it. According to Israeli estimates, most of the hostages on the list are alive - but there is no complete certainty about this. Israel has effectively given up its demand to receive a list of live hostages - and continues to move forward with a deal without it.
In the first phase of the deal, the women and the Bibas children are expected to be released. After that, female soldiers will be released, then adults over the age of 50, and those who have been defined as wounded and sick. The release is supposed to last throughout the entire first phase - over 42 days. On the 16th day of the first phase, discussions will begin on implementing the second phase of the deal.
The agreement is divided into three phases, and on Monday night political sources said it may be reduced to two. During the second phase, the rest of the live hostages are supposed to be released from captivity, possibly along with the dead.
After the first phase, 65 hostages are still expected to remain in Hamas captivity in the Gaza Strip. Among the hostages are 36 who are defined as dead, 7 foreigners, and 22 Israeli hostages who are defined as alive.
After the announcement of agreement, the deal will be submitted for approval to the Political-Security Cabinet and the government. After that, the government secretariat will publish the list of Palestinian prisoners who will be released, and the public will be given time to submit petitions against the releases to the High Court. The law states that the public will be given at least 48 hours before the implementation. The deal is expected to have majority approval in the government.
In the first phase of the agreement, approximately 1,300 terrorists are expected to be released. However, since Israel does not know which of the hostages released in the first phase is alive, it is not certain that all 1,300 terrorists will be released, and the numbers could change depending on the fate of the hostages released in the first phase.
Israel is demanding that terrorists with blood on their hands be exiled and not allowed to return to the West Bank, meaning that they will be exiled to the Gaza Strip, Qatar or Turkey. In the first stage, the Nukhba terrorists who were captured in Gaza will not be released. According to a Saudi report, which has not been verified by any other source, Hamas also demanded the release of the body of the terrorist organization's leader, Yahya Sinwar. A political source responded that: "That won't happen, period."
In terms of the IDF's presence on the ground, the forces are expected to remain on the Philadelphi Corridor in the first phase, and withdraw in phases to a buffer zone to ensure that Hamas implements the deal. The IDF is supposed to leave the area of the Netzarim Corridor, which effectively separates the northern Gaza Strip from the south, and this will allow displaced Gaza residents to return to the northern Gaza Strip after undergoing security checks - the nature of which was not specified.
The families of the hostages received an update from the Hostages Directorate Tuesday evening, which stated that, throughout the last few hours, consultations, situation assessments and integrative staff work required by the state for the negotiations have continued at the Prime Minister's Office in Jerusalem. Meanwhile, a situation assessment was held by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his team with Defense Minister Israel Katz, the heads of the defense establishment, and the negotiating team in Doha. "The negotiations are intensive, discussing details that require a conclusion, and are continuing and will continue tonight," the Prime Minister's Office said.
Cabinet Secretary Yossi Fox claimed Tuesday evening that the current deal "is the same deal as May 27."
"I was there in all the forums that discussed the deal," he said. "The current deal was rejected by Hamas for six months and even now it has not yet been approved by them. During all this time, if a positive answer had come from Hamas, it would have had a majority in the cabinet and the government. The Prime Minister did not change his position one millimeter. The only factor that thwarted the deal - Hamas."
Fear of hostage families: The second phase will not materialize
In the shadow of the expectation for the return of 33 hostages in the first phase, families of hostages who are not included in the list fear that the second phase will not be implemented. On the surface, and although much remains to be seen regarding the details of the outline, it is already clear that throughout the first phase the IDF will remain in the buffer zone in the Gaza Strip, will hold positions on the Philadelphi Corridor and will evacuate the Netzarim Corridor, only while implementing a screening mechanism for Gazans who wish to return to the northern Gaza Strip. Alongside this, it is clear that the phase also includes comprehensive and extensive humanitarian assistance.
However, the second phase , which includes the end of the war, effectively marks the beginning of the "day after" in the Gaza Strip - and therefore the list of demands that Hamas has presented in the past regarding it has repeatedly crossed all of Israel's red lines.
The terrorist organization's main demand, in order to agree to the release of the 65 Israeli and foreign hostages, which are its last bargaining chip, is to end the war. This is a complete end, a "sustainable peace" without reservations, within the framework of which Israel will fully withdraw from the Gaza Strip and allow billions of dollars from other countries to be poured into its reconstruction.
In addition, Hamas is expected to demand the release of a larger number of prisoners for each soldier not included in the outline in the first phase - while it also defines the young men as "soldiers." The terrorist organization, which wants to present some kind of achievement for the murderous surprise attack it carried out and which also brought disaster to the Gaza Strip, is also expected to demand that Israel release more "heavyweight" prisoners in the second phase, including, for example, Palestinian leaders such as Marwan Barghouti, or Hassan Salameh - a friend of Muhammad Sinwar and a senior member of Hamas' military wing, who is serving 46 life sentences.
To this must be added another problem of the second phase, which will probably emerge in the first phase: The terrorist organization is conducting the negotiations in a cynical and cruel manner and, as was the case in the previous deal, it is expected to try to introduce "scapegoats" during the implementation of the agreement. These could present decision-makers in Israel with unbearable dilemmas, and create a dynamic of distrust that will blow up the talks.
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Israel prepared for this in advance, and therefore during the first phase it will retain significant leverage over Hamas – such as remaining in the buffer zone in the Gaza Strip and in Philadelphi, but in the second phase these leverages will slowly fade, and in order for all the hostages to be released during this process it is necessary to ensure that Hamas has something to lose. Such a situation can be created, for example, through the third phase, which has already been discussed – and which guarantees the full rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip only after the release of the last hostage.
One of the main difficulties the mediators encountered Is the goal declared by each side - which means that the outline for ending the war must allow both Israel and Hamas to declare "victory." In other words, if the unexpected does not happen, and Hamas does not back down from its demand to end the war, the question arises of what guarantees Israel will receive that the terrorist organization will indeed not take an active part in governing Gaza. In addition, Israel's security demands must also be met: From the government's perspective, the war must end with no fighting force in the Gaza Strip that poses a threat.
Yael Ciechanover participated in the preparation of this report