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The Israeli opening strike that marked the end of the ceasefire in Gaza isn't U.S. President Donald Trump's "gates of hell" threat, but it does signal a shift: dozens of aircraft struck hundreds of targets reflecting Hamas' political and civil capabilities, not just its military ones.
This approach, seen by the new IDF Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Eyal Zamir as essential to toppling the terror group's rule in Gaza, represents a strategic shift. Simultaneously, heavy artillery fire toward northern Gaza was intended to push residents who had returned there back south.
For those who may have forgotten, these are the days of Ramadan and the IDF’s operations are not making it easier — if anything, they may increase pressure on Hamas.
Military leaders view this surprise strike as the beginning of a phased operation, with potential stopping points that could allow a return to negotiations. Israel, which refused to discuss the second phase of the agreement signed two months ago, understood that Hamas was not receptive to proposals to extend the first phase.
This led to the decision to proceed with the operation, planned by the IDF and Shin Bet in recent weeks, demonstrating a necessary improvement in intelligence capabilities and an emphasis on surprise and deception.
Contrary to some reports, warnings about an impending Hamas infiltration by Nukhba terrorists were not the trigger for this operation. Hamas did use the ceasefire to rebuild its capabilities, mainly by controlling humanitarian aid (until Israel recently halted it), allowing it to recruit more operatives and plant explosives in anticipation of an IDF return.
However, the IDF still maintains a presence inside Gaza — an advantage it lacks in Lebanon, where it operates from just five outposts over a much larger area. The military also controls the Philadelphi Corridor, which Zamir visited on Tuesday.
A surprise attack, even a small-scale infiltration into an Israeli community, would be disastrous. Meanwhile, Hamas retains rocket-launching capabilities and Yemen's Houthis signaled their re-engagement with a missile strike toward Be'er Sheva.
The IDF won’t earn a distinction
Alongside its military offensive, Israel's security officials are counting on two major shifts in recent months. The first is the change in U.S. leadership and the White House's support for Israel's moves — ranging from effectively canceling the second phase of the previous ceasefire deal to approving Tuesday's attack.
The second, also linked to the political shift, is the halt of humanitarian aid, though Hamas continues to distribute what has already entered Gaza — something that, according to military officials, must be stopped as well.
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Over the past year and a half, the IDF has focused its efforts on dismantling Hamas’ military capabilities. When it comes to civilian infrastructure, however, the army’s performance has been far from stellar. The recent parades of Toyota convoys at Hamas-organized ceremonies ahead of hostage releases made that clear.
This is one of the key differences between Zamir and his predecessor, Herzi Halevi. The latter opposed military involvement in Gaza’s civilian sector and, according to a senior IDF Southern Command source, even warned the political leadership against assigning this task to the IDF.
"Halevi was right that IDF soldiers shouldn't be handing out food but the army can supervise civilian companies — just not Hamas-controlled ones," the source explained. Zamir seems to align with this view: top military officials understand that this maintains legitimacy that keeps it in power as long as it profits from food sales.
"You can't ignore the civilian component and expect to defeat Hamas," said a senior IDF officer. "We need to reach a point where Hamas has no control over aid — only then can we start discussing governance alternatives." While military pressure can achieve some results, it's difficult to surprise Hamas or force a decisive outcome that will bring it to the negotiating table.
That’s why Israel is increasing the pressure: aid shipments have stopped, the Rafah crossing is closed, caravans aren’t entering and even construction equipment for debris removal is blocked. Additionally, civilians who returned to northern Gaza are once again being pushed south. "For Hamas, this is a significant development," the officer added.
Two possible scenarios
At this stage, military officials see two possible scenarios: in the first, Hamas caves and agrees to a broad and swift deal. In the second, it refuses to back down, prompting the IDF to resume large-scale ground operations — bringing with it all the challenges of reserve call-ups and further burdening the standing army, which is already facing a severe manpower shortage.
What would be different this time? "There’s no need to reinvent the wheel in Gaza — it’s simply not possible militarily," said a senior IDF general involved in planning. "But we can apply more firepower simultaneously rather than in a phased approach."
Yossi YehoshuaIsrael hopes that the intensity of the airstrikes, the rising Palestinian casualty count and the extended border closures — this time with U.S. backing — will convince Hamas that it's better not to wait and find out how much worse things can get.
However, Hamas still holds 59 hostages, both alive and deceased and Israel’s efforts to safeguard them offer no guarantees of success. That made Tuesday a difficult day for the hostages’ families and the coming days don’t look any more promising.