All the evidence suggests that the current Haredi draft bill will not pass in its current form, and any talk about ultra-Orthodox enlistment is merely speculation. The Haredim have come to terms with the fact that it's a lost cause and will try to postpone their exit from the government. Meanwhile, ultra-Orthodox rabbis have embarked on a fundraising campaign in the U.S., which should help the yeshivas in the short run after their generous budgets are cut. Donations will be limited because the ultra-Orthodox in the diaspora also have educational institutions that need money.
The ultra-Orthodox in Israel will be forced to learn to survive without state budgets, just as their peers are doing abroad. They are also preparing to lose their benefits and subsidies, including a discount on property tax, a discount on social security payments and a discount on day care centers. Regardless of who will lead the next government, the ultra-Orthodox know the current situation cannot continue.
The ultra-Orthodox members of Knesset do not decide anything regarding the Haredi draft and their opinions on the matter are irrelevant. Those who decide whether the ultra-Orthodox youth will enlist in the Israel Defense Forces are the religious leaders of the ultra-Orthodox parties according to "daat Torah," which gives authority to leading rabbis for deciding matters secular and spiritual alike. No Haredi rabbi will approve the recruitment of young people from Haredi homes, even if they are not really Haredi and even if they are semi-secular. Haredi society recoils at the very idea that thousands of uniformed men will roam through ultra-Orthodox neighborhoods.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, thousands of IDF Home Front Command soldiers were deployed in ultra-Orthodox neighborhoods. While the residents did not like it, there was no choice due to quarantine and safety regulations. The rabbis fear that if there is even unofficial approval to recruit the ultra-Orthodox dropout youth, those who remain in yeshivot will soon enlist too.
When you read about the outlines, the agreements, and the exchange of drafts between the ultra-Orthodox and the government, ignore it, these are spins; as far as they are concerned, the ultra-Orthodox will remain permanently in the opposition if the price is the enlistment of thousands of young people from ultra-Orthodox homes that are not learning in yeshiva.
Ultra-Orthodox society will manage without budgets
The ultra-Orthodox will manage without budgets, just as Satmar Hasidim and other Hasidic groups that do not take a shekel from the state, manage. The ultra-Orthodox society will manage without budgets in the end, just as the ultra-Orthodox Jews abroad manage.
The ultra-Orthodox will not give in to the Supreme Court's decision to enlist their own, even marginalized youth, who will eventually enlist one way or another. It is true that these boys are not very Haredi-like, but to officially send them to the army, to distance them from tradition, will not happen.
It remains unclear how the IDF will react. It would make sense if the IDF sends draft orders to several thousand young Haredim who are not in yeshivas, and can never know whether they will enlist. However, if the IDF sends orders to ten thousand of ultra-Orthodox youths, it is likely that more than 3,000 will enlist, and that is enough to establish a Haredi brigade.
Yanki FarberThe most important question is whether the rabbis will issue a directive forbidding them from enlisting in the IDF, including those not enrolled in yeshiva. Doing that might cease funding for all yeshivas. The ultra-Orthodox leadership will examine whether enlisting 3,000-4,000 young Haredim will satisfy the Supreme Court and help fund yeshivas or if will worsen the crisis. If the Supreme Court is satisfied with these enlistment numbers, the Haredim may be able to stomach mere thousands.
As long as it is not an official policy, the ultra-Orthodox will accept it. There will never be official Haredi approval to draft their young people, including those who are not taking an active part in the yeshiva, even at the cost of staying in the opposition forever, similar to Arab parties.
Yanki Farber is an analyst on Haredi matters, writes on the ultra-Orthodox Behadrei Haredim website and served as a combat soldier in the Ultra-Orthodox Netzah Yehuda Battalion.