Kamala Harris carries an undeniable charisma, a captivating smile and an inner strength that reassures her supporters. Her approachable demeanor makes people feel they can relate to her. She's not a programmed puppet; she knows how to break boundaries. To many, she embodies a diverse, new America and breathes life into the American dream, hence her catching up and surpassing Trump is some swing state polls.
There is some precedent. François Mitterrand served as France's president for many years. Historians have tried to uncover the secret of his power, concluding it wasn't just his particular smile and charm. People voted for him because he represented what they aspired to be.
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Vice President Kamala Harris and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrive before a meeting on the White House grounds in Washington
(Photo: Julia Nikhinson, File/AP)
Now, perhaps temporarily, blue America is dreaming Kamala's dream. Veteran Republican pollster Frank Luntz noted in an interview that he had never seen such a significant leap in polls in such a short time. He said Harris has raised the excitement level in these elections, and data shows that voters who disliked both Trump and Biden and planned not to vote are now inclined to support the candidate who brought infectious joy to an otherwise dull campaign. Among women, she leads Trump by almost 20 points.
Harris emerged from the battlegrounds of the middle class. Her life story is one of struggle, and America loves a presidential candidate with a compelling narrative. Hers is spiced with the flavors of India and Jamaica, the tale of a little Black girl who soared like a meteor in the realms of law and politics.
She has a refined sense of humor but does not compromise and decisively demands silence when she speaks. Leadership is not just about economic or political plans; people vote primarily based on emotion. The Democratic convention in Chicago opens on Monday, and Harris will officially receive her presidential nomination, likely injecting more enthusiasm and hope.
This doesn't guarantee her victory; Trump's base remains unshaken, holding onto their holy trinity of God, guns and Donald. However, she is gaining traction among swing voters, especially young women who see her as a role model.
If elected, Harris would approach Israel with a policy similar to Biden's, but her friendship would come with tough love. She believes in being a friend to Israel, being appalled by October 7, and equally disturbed by the death and destruction in Gaza. She will advocate for a two-state solution. Within the Democratic Party, the Palestinian narrative is gaining recognition, with Palestinian Americans portraying the descendants of Nakba victims as those now fiercely fighting for independence.
Harris, married to a Jew, knows how to make perfect matzo balls for Passover. Yet, matzo balls are folklore, not policy: She will demand Israel end the occupation and apartheid and pursue a diplomatic path. Determination is a strong vertebrae in her backbone. She won't be what Trump was to Netanyahu during his tenure: a useful idiot whose ignorance was exploited to exit the nuclear deal and thwart the Palestinian aspiration for statehood. She is unlikely to lose most Jewish votes, as Jews traditionally vote for Democrats due to economic reasons, not foreign policy. Currently, Harris is riding a winning wave. However, this doesn't mean she will be the next president; after all, America is among the most primitive countries in the modern world, and asking them to elect someone who is a woman, Black and Indian all at the same time is no small request.
(Trump campaigning in Pennsylvania )
Trump is aware of this, thus playing the "identity politics" angle as much as he can. As things stand, it's the only card he can play if he wishes to curb her momentum long enough to get a second, non-consecutive term.
But what are the chances?
Georgia: At the moment, Trump's lead in Georgia is small, but stable. Harris has yet to be able to pierce through. On average, Trump leads 46.7% to 45.2%.
North Carolina: Things are even tighter in the Tar Heel state. Though the last few polls have been favorable to Harris, the average remains a tie. Both score 45.3%.
Pennsylvania: Both campaigns have been pouring a lot of money into the state, and once again, things are extra tight. Averaging out the last few polls, Harris leads 46.3% to 44.8%, but this is far from a done deal. It's definitely going to be a razor-thin victory for whoever claims it.
Wisconsin: Things in the Badger state are looking a bit rosier for Harris than they do for Trump. The latest poll has her up by 6 points. On average, she leads by 3 points, and Trump has failed to mount a lead in any of the last 6 polls conducted there.
Arizona: While the Harris campaign views Arizona as an important-but-not-crucial state, Harris has lead Trump there in 4 of the last 6 polls done since the beginning of August. On average, it's 45.3% to 44.4% for Harris, but that means little at the moment.
Nevada: At the moment, it's way too close to call. On average, both have 44.6%. While the most recent poll was kind very kind to Harris, four previous ones were not. Nevada is not part of the "Blue Wall" Harris is desperate to win, but that doesn't mean she won't give a hell of a fight there.
Michigan: Polls from the Great Lake state have shown Harris holding on to a persistent lead. This is an absolute must-win for Harris, and she will pour her heart out to take it. As things stand, the latest polls average out to 46.5% to 43.3.% in her favor.
Bottom line
Exact poll numbers aside, it's clear that almost all polls done in swing states are within the margin of error. It's worth remembering Trump has been under-valued in polls before, and won. Just ask Hillary.