As Austria edges toward its general elections on Sunday, the political landscape is poised for a seismic shift. Polls forecast a significant triumph for the far-right Freiheitliche Partei Österreich, or "Freedom Party of Austria," an entity with historical ties to the Nazi movement. This could herald the ascent of its leader, Herbert Kickl, to the chancellorship, marking the first time since World War II that such a position is held by a member from this faction.
The election outcomes are anticipated to mirror the prevailing European trend toward policies that resist immigration, oppose the European Union, and waver in their support for Ukraine, while adopting a conciliatory stance toward the Kremlin.
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Herbert Kickl of the far-right Freiheitliche Partei Österreich
(Photo: AP Photo/Christian Bruna, File)
The Freedom Party's manifesto is rooted in a stringent anti-immigration stance. It seeks to emulate Austria's neighbor, Hungary, which has successfully curtailed the influx of Muslim immigrants, fortified its defenses against radical Islam, and drawn inspiration from Austrian cities where party representatives have prioritized security. These cities have bolstered police forces, installed street surveillance and linked immigrant integration with access to municipal social benefits.
In contrast to its neighbor Germany, Austria's far-right party has historically participated in coalition governments, notably under Jörg Haider in 2000. It was also part of former Chancellor Sebastian Kurz's coalition and remains a coalition partner in three major Austrian states. However, this election might witness an unprecedented milestone with a party member vying for the chancellery and the formation of a government. Currently, the Freedom Party leads the polls with 27%, holding a two-point lead over the People's Party.
Despite its modest population of nine million, Austria holds significant clout within the European Union, primarily due to its strategic geographic positioning for trade: the Tyrol region serves as the north-south conduit, while the country's eastern frontier is the nexus between Western Europe and the Balkan states. Should the party ascend to power and pursue initiatives akin to Brexit, distancing or even severing Austria from the EU, it could deal a severe blow to trade relations.
However, Austria's geographical importance transcends commerce, extending into security dynamics. The Freedom Party’s rise, perceived as staunchly pro-Russian, could forge a coalition of EU nations sympathetic to Moscow – Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia – thus facilitating the Kremlin's efforts to undermine Western European morale.
Geography also plays a pivotal role in immigration and asylum policies: Austria has absorbed more immigrants relative to its population than any other EU country. This is a significant factor behind the Freedom Party's impressive polling performance. These dynamics have led Austrians, who for decades saw themselves as the Nazis' first victims, to rally behind a party founded in the 1950s by former Nazis.
Twenty years ago, Jörg Haider elevated the party from obscurity to prominence, and now Kickl, his protégé, is steering the party toward national leadership post its 2019 expulsion due to major scandals. Kickl has advanced a platform that can be viewed as "Haider-plus": under his leadership, the party openly advocates for a policy of re-migration for those deemed foreigners by authorities.
Those anticipating that Kickl might temper his extreme views in a pragmatic turn, reminiscent of Giorgia Meloni in Italy, should recall his tenure as Interior Minister. He orchestrated raids on state security services over suspicions of infiltration by informants and rebranded reception centers as "departure centers."
The sole hope for Kickl’s opponents lies in the People's Party, the conservative Christian-Democratic faction, opting to isolate the Freedom Party. However, given their historical alliances – having twice entered coalitions – and policy alignments that are closer to the Freedom Party than the current Green Party partners, the likelihood is favorable that Herbert Kickl will emerge as a leading candidate for Austria's chancellorship following Sunday's elections.