U.S. intelligence estimates Iran has made progress toward the ability to produce the "weapon group" — the second component necessary for creating a nuclear bomb, The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.
According to the report, U.S. intelligence believes that Iran isn’t currently working on creating this component. An American official also said there was no evidence that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has ordered the military nuclear program to be restarted.
Despite this, a report submitted to U.S. Congress in July said, "Iran has undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.”
To develop a nuclear bomb, Iran requires other technological components. In March, Ynet and its sister publication Yedioth Ahronoth that Iran has been actively seeking several such components recently. These components are necessary for assembling a nuclear warhead, and one senior official described these efforts as "very troubling."
Producing a functional nuclear bomb requires technical capability, knowledge and physical components like precise and coordinated detonators. It is generally accepted that Iran is one to two years away from achieving such capabilities.
However, three senior Israeli officials—one from the defense sector, another from the political sphere and a third with access to classified information—indicated that there have been recent developments in this area.
The three officials said that Iran has been actively pursuing or "probing" to acquire components needed for the "weapon group" required to assemble a nuclear bomb. Some expressed serious concern over these developments, while others noted that Iran might be continually engaged in such activities.
None of them believed that Iran was currently breaking out into a nuclear bomb. Israel has reported these activities, as it perceives them, to its allies, particularly the United States.
The report notes that in the past, such research might have been seen as a sign that Iran was trying to develop a nuclear weapon. However, a spokesperson for U.S. intelligence said, "Iran doesn’t have an active military nuclear program."
American officials declined to provide The Wall Street Journal with details about the research Iran is conducting. Concerns among Israeli and American officials have been growing in recent months about weapons Iranian research related to computational models and metallurgy.
According to the report, such research falls into a "gray zone" between obtaining the components for a nuclear weapon — such as high-level uranium enrichment and the production of metallic uranium — and physically producing a nuclear weapon. The research is considered "dual-use," and Tehran can claim it’s intended for civilian purposes.
The intelligence report submitted to Congress mentioned not only Iran's research but also Iran’s increasing public statements regarding nuclear weapons. “There has been a notable increase this year in Iranian public statements about nuclear weapons, suggesting the topic is becoming less taboo.”
The report also noted that even if Tehran doesn’t move to develop and nuclear bomb, it’s attempting to leverage international concerns about the pace of its program to gain an advantage in possible negotiations and as a response to international pressure.