A survey conducted by the Palestinian Center for Survey and Policy Research, led by Dr. Khalil Shikaki, shows that Palestinian prisoner Marwan Barghouti who’s responsible for the death of five Israelis, is poised to replace current Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.
"If elections we held, Barghouti would certainly win. This finding repeats itself in every previous survey, especially in the latest one - crowning Barghouti as Abbas’ successor. No other name has come up capable of defeating Hamas other than Barghouti’s," Shikaki explained.
According to the survey, conducted both in the West Bank and in Gaza, Barghouti is considered the most popular candidate because he is "Yasser Arafat's heir - that's how the Palestinians see him."
He added, "The Palestinians loved Arafat and fell in love with whoever reminds them of him. Barghouti is like Arafat in terms of his positions - he believes in the peace process and that reaching an agreement with Israel will require negotiations, but if that fails – there’s a need to resort to armed opposition. This is the path the Palestinians believe in, especially after the Second Intifada. Barghouti represents the new generation of the Palestinian national movement." Shikaki noted that Barghouti's prison sentence "doesn’t prevent the Palestinian public from supporting him and continuing to see their hope in him."
He added that Abbas’s popularity is less than 10% in the pools, and explained the Palestinian perspective. "Calls for Abbas’s resignation are abundant. Now, during the war, the public feels that Abbas isn’t connected to Gaza. The security coordination with Israel, which Abbas doesn’t give up on, is considered a betrayal to the Palestinians.
“It is easier for them to deal with Abbas and dismiss him than to do the same with Hamas. Sinwar and Haniyeh lead armed resistance against the occupation - and Abbas doesn’t. This looks different to the Palestinians," he said.
In an interview with Ynet, Shikaki explained that Palestinians want Hamas to continue its rule during and after the ongoing war - and don’t see any other possibility. "This was clear in the last survey and also in the current one. There were no changes, on the contrary – there was an increase in Hamas's popularity from 38% to 52%. From the Palestinian perspective, there are no alternatives at the moment."
The first survey conducted after October 7 showed that support for the terrorist organization among the Palestinian public increased significantly. "Hamas's popularity rate in the West Bank before the war was 12%, and it rose to 44% after October 7. Currently, there is a decline, but the support is still relatively high," Shikaki said.
According to him, the reason for the rise in Hamas's popularity was the hostage deals, during which Palestinian prisoners, most of them Gazans, were released. "It increased Hamas's mandate and also provided legitimacy for its 'armed resistance' that yields results," Shikaki added.
Shikaki addressed the Israeli idea that economic prosperity will lead to peace with the Palestinians, saying it was wrong. "Economic prosperity isn’t at the top of Palestinians' concerns," he noted.
"The most important issue is ending the occupation and establishing a Palestinian state; all economic matters come second - especially in Gaza." Shikaki sees religious extremism as a pressing factor pushing the economic issues aside, so in Gaza, considered poorer than the West Bank, the need for a strong economy diminishes.
Shikaki has conducted over 200 polls among the Palestinian public in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and dozens of joint public opinion surveys between Palestinians and Israelis. The Palestinian Center for Survey and Policy Research, led by Shikaki, is considered one of the most reliable institutions that reflect Palestinian public opinion accurately.
He added he doesn’t anticipate a change in Palestinian public opinion in the next survey unless the war ends. "Otherwise, Palestinian public opinion will remain the same," he said.
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