IDF fires shots on border
(מתוך שידורי ערוץ "אל ג'דיד")
As the temperatures continue to rise towards the peak of summer, the atmosphere in Israel is following a similar pattern. Tension is building through two correlating dramatic and dangerous issues: the threat to the integrity of the IDF reserve forces as an act of protest against the judicial reform, and the escalating pressure exerted by Hassan Nasrallah on the northern border.
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Now is the moment of truth, which calls for utmost national responsibility, both from the Prime Minister's end and from those threatening to refuse to volunteer for their reserve duty amid Netanyahu's legislative push that they regard as an assault on the country's democratic form of government.
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Hezbollah provocations along the Israel-Lebanon border
(Photo: IDF Spokesperson's Unit, JALAA MAREY / AFP)
Hezbollah is being prompted by Iran to test Israel's patience. Tehran is pressuring Nasrallah to provoke Israel and make it pay the price that the Iranians were not able to, from afar. By Iran's accounts, there are unsettled scores with Israel, and the instructions to the Lebanese proxies are to inflict pain on the Israelis while refraining from a full-scale war.
Iran's 2023 Hezbollah project, estimated at nearly a billion dollars per annum, according to estimates - Is expected to provide a "second strike" response, should Israel attacks Iran's nuclear facilities. Therefore, the current task the Lebanon-based group must carry out is to undermine the IDF and cause erode its deterrence. This can be achieved not only through provocations from the northern border but also through attacks from the Palestinian front, encouraged by Iran. This game can be titled - "We'll take whatever we can get."
Nasrallah may be aiming for a confrontation that would lead to a days-long round of fighting, but as history has proved, such plans are never accurately executed and could unexpectedly spiral out of control. Hezbollah opted to enlist Palestinian-Lebanese such as the terrorist who infiltrated into Israel and placed an explosive device miles from the border, last March.
Nasrallah has Since gone back to relying on tactical provocations along the border fence, where it is much easier for him to present himself as the "defender of Lebanon" and thereby gain domestic legitimacy in a country that is overflowing with troubles and corruption. His group is also attempting to disrupt the IDF plan to reinforce the border itself, which would in turn complicate the plans for infiltration in the future, of its special Radwan commando unit created to be deployed in times of war.
When on Saturday, another provocation occurred when a Lebanese member of Parliament for Hezbollah crossed into Israeli territory at Mount Dov, with a group of journalists, the IDF used live fire to push them back, unlike in previous incidents.
Lebanese parliament member and several journalists attempted to cross into Israel through the "Blue Line" border
(Al Jadeed)
But this still doesn't make up for the embarrassment of discovering that IDF placed cameras along the border, to detect just such provocations, were themselves stolen by the Lebanese Hezbollah operatives that have been camping out on the borderline. Recklessness and negligence by the IDF could spark a full-fledged war. We've seen this unfold before, exactly 17 years ago when the Second Lebanon War broke out after an attack on an IDF patrol.
Footage of Lebanese theft of Israeli cameras near Metula
It would be a mistake to separate the recent actions of Hezbollah from what is happening within Israel. Nasrallah has sharp senses, especially when it comes to Israel. He sees the sights, hears the sounds, and understands very well the significance of the threats made by IDF pilots refusing to continue their volunteer service amid the government's actions.
But the result is that a group of people, whose contribution to Israel's security cannot be overlooked or understated, are in effect holding the government hostage. Their absence from service could potentially affect the IDF's very preparedness for war but could also undermine the very foundation on which the military stands: the people's army. Should they succeed to bring the government to its knees, they will surely be followed by other groups in the future, intent on advancing their agendas. In the meantime, the Chief of Staff and the commander of the Air Force are engaging in a game of chicken, avoiding commitment to penalties those volunteers may be subjected to.
While the responsibility for this predicament the military is facing lies with the prime minister and his cabinet, the military must be clear in its response or any public debate could be resolved by pilots or members of other elite units and that is an outcome we must not allow.